Overview. Egypt, like the rest of the world, is all about the Covid-19 virus (C19) right now. The political, economic and health impacts of the pandemic are all encompassing and the impact will be felt for a long time to come. After fighting so hard to pull itself out of recession and repair industry sectors damaged by revolution and unrest, this virus is already reversing all gains and pushing the nation in directions no one foresaw, much less planned for. There is no other news in the country right now as every section of society is standing by to fight the fires this pandemic will light.
Slow response. Sisi and his ministers finally broke their silence late in March to address rumours that the government was losing the battle against C19. Earlier in the month, a journalist for The Guardian was forced to leave Egypt after penning a piece where she cited research by the University of Toronto which appeared to show that although Egypt was reporting only three C19 cases, the actual numbers were much higher – possibly as many as 19,000. Public confidence had been eroded by the government’s silence and panic was beginning to take hold. It is likely that the government has been manipulating C19 infection and fatality figures. It is also now certain that official agency response and preparedness was being overestimated. Several events point to this including the deaths of two senior military officers after official documents were leaked suggesting that not only were numerous soldiers already infected but that the outbreak is much more widespread than is being reported in official statements. Pro-Sisi media report successes in addressing the spread. They are broadcasting propaganda style short films showing iconic sites sound-tracked with triumphant music. One network Tweeted “We will defeat coronavirus just as China did.” Egyptians are lapping it up. The true threat is not being pushed strongly enough. Parks and recreation areas are closed yet a short walk in neighbourhoods will find families picnicking on packed traffic circles and central reservations. Feeding patriotic pride is not a prophylactic nor is it a vaccine. Sisi’s strongman image is making people complacent. They think he has everything under control. That is very far from the truth. As the month drew to a close that became more apparent.
Healthcare. On 29th March, authorities announced the closure of several hospitals to allow them to be sterilised and disinfected after staff working in the facilities showed C19 infection. The affected hospitals include al-Salam, Alexandria University and al-Shorouk hospitals in Cairo. An announcement that Government paid health care workers will receive a 75% allowance on top of their salaries for the duration of the C19 crisis fell short of rewarding them for the risks they are taking. Sisi has allocated EGP 2.25 million for the programme to set up an emergency fund to support medical professionals. Doctors will receive an additional EGP 700, Physiotherapists EGP 500 and nurses EGP 400. At the time of writing USD 1 = EGP 15.77. It will not be enough. Egypt’s health system must undergo rapid change, and upgrade, to meet the new challenges being presented by new disease patterns, changing demographics as well as rising costs and limited access to equipment, testing kits and qualified personnel. If the health care system is looked at with more than a mere glance the number of complex problems identified increases rapidly. Many regions were already failing to provide even essential services and what they did offer was insufficient. Decision-makers at all levels need to urgently appraise health system performance, identify factors that influence it and articulate policies that will empower it to achieve better results. There have been no signs of this need even being acknowledged yet, much less a plan to intervene before it is too late.
WHO. Despite this, the World Health Organization (WHO) has said that Egypt is making “substantial efforts” to contain the C19 outbreak and that its disease surveillance system “has proven effective” in preventing clusters of cases from spreading. “After several days of intensive meetings and field visits both inside and outside Cairo, we see that Egypt is making substantial efforts to control the C19 outbreak. Significant work is being done, especially in the areas of early detection, laboratory testing, isolation, contact tracing and referral of patients,” said Dr. Yvan Hutin, a WHO director for communicable diseases. However, he continued by saying, “But more needs to be done” to control the outbreak.“We have agreed on several areas that can be scaled up, taking a whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach,” he said without elaborating. Egypt has not elaborated either.
Curfews. After much anticipation,Egypt finally imposed a nationwide curfew, 19:00 to 06:00 daily, effective from Wednesday 25th March. The government mandate insists that all shops close from 17:00 on weekdays while all retail outlets are subjected to complete shut down on Fridays and Saturdays. Of note however is that this directive does not include bakeries, pharmacies, grocery stores or supermarkets (not located in shopping malls). All restaurants, cafes, bars, clubs and gyms are also ordered to close. Food service is restricted to home delivery only. All forms of public and private transportation are also suspended during curfew hours. Egypt’s Interior Ministry has been instructed to be “firm and decisive” in dealing with anyone violating the curfew or undertaking any activity it deems could contribute to the spread of the virus. Violators will face penalties ranging from fines of EGP 4,000 to imprisonment. The emergency measures also include the suspension of all schools and universities. Mosques are ordered to close for all five daily prayers. Churches are also instructed to shut their doors. Museums, tourist sites and all beaches have also been closed. Street vendors and markets have been ordered to cease trading in efforts to stop large groups from gathering. It should be anticipated that these suspensions will be extended and additional restrictions applied. The imposition of a complete lockdown cannot be ruled out. The impact that this will have on the majority of a population who live well under the poverty line is incalculable. Street vendors spend their daily takings on food. No trade means no cash and that means people don’t eat. Hunger often breeds anger. The risk of social unrest should not be ruled out.
Fake News. The General Prosecution office is invoking articles 80, 102 and 188 of Egypt’s criminal code which will mean prison sentences up to 5 years and fines of up to EGP 20,000 for those convicted of sharing false information about the outbreak in efforts to prevent the pandemic being used by critics of the government to incite protest. In a nation that often subscribes to the notion that if you haven’t heard a good rumour by 10 am you should start one – this measure will do nothing but allow the government to further suppress free speech and silence opponents.
Economic Impact. President Sisi’s economic achievements are now being dangerously threatened by the unprecedented external shock of an invisible enemy out to sabotage his so far successful economic and financial policies. In a very short period of time, global economic confidence has disappeared – paralysing financial, business, manufacturing, tourism, retail and oil markets equally. The Egyptian economy had been healthy with a growth rate of just above 5% in the last two quarters of 2019. Foreign currency reserves were on the up and inflation was going down. What no-one was particularly worried about was debt. Businesses were beginning to boom and federal cash flow was good. Now that has changed. Servicing interest on public, foreign and domestic debt already sucks up 50% of the state budget income. That is an all-time high. It is still up in the air if the very recently recovering economy will be robust enough to stand strong should the weight of debt cause a landslide. With approximately USD 45 billion in FX reserves, some temporary relief could be found but eventually obligations will have to be met. Funding sources relied upon by the government include tourism, Suez Canal transit fees, overseas remittances and international aid. All of those sectors are already being heavily impacted by the pandemic. That will not change in the short term and, for now at least, there is no Plan B in place.
C19. Numbers released on 29th March by the Health Ministry reported a total of 609 C19 cases confirmed in the country with a death toll of 40. They state that 132 people have fully recovered from the virus and have been discharged from hospital. In a country of more than 100,000 million people, these figures must be taken with a pinch of salt. It is almost certain that the statistics are being manipulated. A combination of misinformation from authorities and misdiagnosis of causes of death can be blamed. This will make mapping of hot spots almost impossible. Despite Egypt covering a vast geographical area, the population live on only 7% of the land. Population density, lack of sanitation, education and poverty are, and will, remain the biggest challenges to winning this battle.
Quarantine. On 28th March, several villages located in various governorates in Upper Egypt were placed under quarantine due to the high reported numbers of virus transmissions. No official figures have been published but this again points to national figures not truly representing actual cases.
Bank Withdrawals. The Central Bank of Egypt, CBE, has set daily cash withdrawal and deposit limits. From 29th March individuals can move a maximum of EGP 10,000. Companies can move EGP 50,000 but proof of payment of staff salaries will be exempted. In addition, the CBE has set maximum ATM withdrawal limits at EGP 5,000 in efforts to encourage the population to use electronic payment methods. Another incentive to stop paper transactions is the suspension of electronic transaction fees for the next 6-month period. A large proportion of the population do not have bank accounts. Even more do not have debit/credit cards. A slowdown in cash circulation will once again impact mainly the poorest who can least afford it. Yet another example of a government idea not being thought through.
Nothing to report.
Egypt has not implemented a total lockdown – yet – but it must be done. For sure Sisi will recognise the economic hardship it will have on millions of his people, but it is what is needed. Forcing social distancing for only half of each day will do nothing to slow down the spread of C19. Sisi’s spin doctors are working full time to control the narrative. An out-dated, inefficient and ill-equipped health care sector will be unable to even begin to pretend it can cope. The true impact of this virus will remain invisible for some time but we can be sure of negative impacts on many levels.