On 1st March 2023 we said “Eyes are still looking towards Ukraine where f ighting continues but the gaze is no longer filled with awe at Putin’s power, instead it is one of almost pity as people and politicians quietly question Moscow’s methods, motives and mental state… Russia [thinks] that it is still a regional powerhouse and Kazakhstan will pay lip service to that but in reality, Russia has already been usurped by China. For now China will sit quietly in the background letting Putin’s politics take the headlines and the limelight. What we are witnessing is a new era in Central Asia. Russia still sits on the doorstep of it but it no longer controls it.”
On 1st June we said, “A ‘leaked’ audio recording has been doing the rounds. In it, Russian General and State Duma deputy Andriy Gurulyov says that Kazakhstan will be Russia’s next target… He says military action against its neighbour is necessary as Astana is failing to follow Moscow directives [and that] the decision to take on Kazakhstan has already been made… Former KGB officer and State Duma deputy Andriy Lugovoy recently released a film accusing Kazakhstan of being Russo-phobic… One Russian TV commentator, Vladimir Solovyov, said his country “must pay attention to the fact that Kazakhstan is the next problem because the same Nazi processes can start there as in Ukraine.”
On 1st August we said “Kazakhstan is quietly sidestepping Russia and actively making new friends but keeping a close eye on its neighbour at the same time.” By 1st September we wrote “Relations between Kazakhstan and Russia retain an element of tension although the two nations continue to deal with each other.”
Then on 1st November we noted, “Some major Russian media outlets have been accused of spreading ‘fake news’ about Kazakhstan… Despite [this] relations between the two nations remain cordial.”
On 1st December we observed that “Tokayev and Putin will seek to maintain a status quo between their nations but we also see Tokayev looking west as he courts EU and US investment while also looking east and strengthening his ties with China… High dependence on Russia could, at times, require a schizophrenic approach to international relations.”
By 1st April 2024 we observed that “Relations with China just keep going from strength to strength.” We also said “Ukraine’s President Zelensky has been doing the talk show and news circuits and what he is saying is causing alarm… According to him, if Ukraine loses the war with Russia, Putin could launch an aggression against Kazakhstan.”
In May 2024 we advised clients not to take Russia’s statements at face value and that China is watching with interest. We noted that Xi Jinping’s very first post-Pandemic state visit was to Kazakhstan, on 14th September 2022. This was a significant statement in of itself but, more importantly, during the trip Jinping even said that his nation would support Kazakhstan in its “defence of independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity” and was “categorically against any interference in the internal affairs of Kazakhstan” – not a light statement, and almost certainly aimed chiefly at Kremlin ears. It would be foolish for the Kremlin to even consider fighting on two fronts at this time. Their Ukraine campaign has definitely not gone as it intended. We doubt a Kazakhstan assault would fare much better.
1 May 2024, we assessed that Russia did not have the capability to launch another offensive. Her threats were more likely to be aimed at telling Kazakhstan to know its place, to not get any big ideas about emerging from Moscow’s shadow, and to be reticent about cosying up to the West or China. Tokayev will continue to deploy his masterful diplomacy skills. Tensions with Russia will continue. The same can be said for relations between Russia and China. Kazakhstan will continue to sit quietly on the fence, offending no one.
