November 2024

Israel strikes back. On 26th October, Israel launched the largest assault on Iranian territory since the Iran-Iraq war. Involving over 100 Israeli aircraft, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) targeted crucial elements of Iran’s defense infrastructure, focusing on missile production sites, air defense systems, and drone-launch facilities in Tehran, Khuzestan, and Ilam. Israeli officials described the strikes as “precise and targeted,” with a specific aim to disable Iran’s missile production capabilities without provoking a regional conflict by avoiding oil and nuclear facilities. The strikes were a direct response to Iran’s 1st October “Operation True Promise 2,” a missile barrage involving around 180 ballistic missiles aimed at Israel. The IDF framed its response as a necessary act of self-defence, coordinated closely with the United States to ensure the scale of the operation remained proportional and confined to military targets. PM Netanyahu emphasized that the operation successfully dealt a significant blow to Iran’s defence capabilities, leaving the country exposed to potential future attacks. Verified satellite images reveal damage to missile assembly and fuel-mixing facilities critical to Iran’s missile production. Israeli intelligence suggests that disrupting Iran’s missile replenishment capabilities could delay their operations for months, potentially longer. Iran may struggle to replace damaged missile components quickly due to international sanctions that restrict access to specialized military-grade manufacturing equipment. The strikes also reportedly impacted Taleghan 2, a site linked to Iran’s nuclear research, as well as Shahroud, a space-programme base, signalling a blow to Iran’s broader strategic capabilities.  
Downbeat response belies military vulnerability. Iranian officials initially downplayed the impact of the strikes, acknowledging only four military and one civilian death and claiming that most missiles were intercepted. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for a measured response, seeking to reassure the public that Iran’s defensive capabilities remained intact. State media circulated images of normal daily life in Tehran to project an image of calm. To control the narrative, the IRGC warned citizens against sharing any images or videos of the aftermath on social media, underscoring the government’s sensitivity to any appearance of vulnerability. However, intelligence assessments indicate that the strikes compromised critical sites, with damage extending to major production facilities and air defense systems. The attack’s scope highlights vulnerabilities in Iran’s defensive infrastructure. Iran’s muted response is a strategic move to buy time while considering its options. Iran’s response is further limited by its depleting missile arsenal and the prolonged recovery time needed for damaged facilities.
International reaction. The US has responded by reinforcing its military presence in the region. Deploying B-52 bombers, fighter jets, tanker aircraft, and Navy destroyers. Washington has also engaged with Iraqi authorities, cautioning against any Iranian attempts to use Iraq as a launchpad for retaliatory attacks. US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield warned that any Iranian assault on Israel or American interests would be met with “severe consequences,” while Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed America’s readiness to assist Israel should Iran follow through on its threats. Simultaneously, countries across the region, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UK, have called for restraint, concerned that further escalation could destabilize the broader Middle East. While Israel refrained from targeting Iranian oil and nuclear sites, these governments fear that ongoing conflict could inadvertently impact oil prices and regional stability. The United States has also advised Israel to limit its strikes to military assets to avoid an all-out regional conflict, and Israeli officials have indicated that their operations are geared toward specific objectives rather than broad escalation.
Trump 2.0.  The return of Donald Trump is likely to see a return to his “maximum pressure” strategy and intensified action against Iran when he resumes office, with allies indicating that tightening economic sanctions will be a top priority to “clean up Biden’s Middle East mess.” Former Trump officials suggest that, alongside harsher economic sanctions to cut oil exports, the Trump team plans to bolster support for Israel. This approach would revive Trump’s previous strategy of economic isolation combined with a credible threat of military force as a deterrent. However, the landscape in the Middle East has shifted significantly since Trump’s last term, complicating the strategy. Israel’s recent actions against Hamas and Hezbollah have strained its international standing, while Iran’s strengthened relationship with Russia adds new challenges for US foreign policy. Trump will need to address these tensions with limited diplomatic and geopolitical capital, and he will likely favour a more assertive approach, diverging from Biden’s caution in preventing direct conflict between Israel and Iran. Unwilling to place restrictions on Israel’s military actions, Trump criticized recent efforts to discourage Israel from targeting Iranian nuclear sites, suggesting that allowing Iran’s nuclear development would ultimately lead to more significant issues. In contrast, Biden has taken steps to avoid escalating tit-for-tat attacks by urging Israel to avoid direct strikes on Iranian targets. Brian Hook, a key regional advisor in the Trump transition team, emphasized that a credible military threat is essential to deter Iran, though he clarified that Trump does not intend to pursue regime change. In a recent interview, Hook stated, “Without a credible threat of military force, deterrence is lost.”
Women, Life, Freedom 2.0 The “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement has gained more traction across Iran this month, with increasing numbers of women openly defying restrictive dress codes. A small number of protests involving young women stripping to their underwear has gripped social media and presented a challenge for authorities trying to strike a balance in their response. This will grow.
Power grid load shedding. Iran has begun rolling nationwide power blackouts due to a natural gas shortage as winter approaches. Tehran (pop. 9.5 million) faces two-hour daily outages affecting homes and businesses. Other provinces are also impacted. Recently, Iran banned the use of mazut, a high-pollution fuel, in three power plants to curb air pollution, which is worsening the energy crunch. The government anticipates a natural gas shortfall of 260 million cubic meters per day this winter and is in talks with Turkmenistan to boost imports. Iran’s energy sector faces a national grid shortfall of 20,000 MW due to insufficient generation, power plant issues, and aging infrastructure. High demand for petrol, exacerbated by inefficient vehicles, poor fuel quality, and limited public transport, stresses Iran’s limited refining capacity. Fuel subsidies keep petrol prices extremely low at USD0.02 per Liter, though Pezeshkian has questioned the sustainability of these subsidies, hinting at possible price increases.