Trump’s letter to Khamenei, scarred from his experience of Trump’s reneging on the last nuclear deal, elicits a negative response. More external ‘maximum pressure’ is on its way. Internally, the screws are being turned on domestic dissenters.
Nuclear negotiations. Iran is on the brink of developing nuclear weapons, according to a warning from the IAEA. Rafael Grossi, the agency’s director general, stated that Iran’s nuclear program is highly ambitious, with uranium enrichment reaching levels close to weapons-grade – Iran remains dangerously close to the nuclear threshold. Meanwhile, Donald Trump in a letter to the Supreme Leader offered a choice between renewed nuclear talks or the possibility of military intervention targeting Iran’s atomic sites. Khamenei rejected diplomacy, arguing that Trump’s previous withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal renders negotiations meaningless. He has also warned of severe retaliation should the US or its allies launch an attack.
Despite Khamenei’s public rejection, Iran has stated that it has reached an understanding with Russia and China that any future negotiations on its nuclear program must remain strictly focused on that issue and not expand to other concerns. This stance, announced by deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi during a meeting in Beijing, appears to set a firm condition for any potential talks with the US. Washington, however, has consistently raised concerns about Iran’s support for armed groups in the Middle East, its missile program, and its handling of domestic dissent. While Iran claims that China and Russia share its position, neither country has explicitly confirmed this consensus. In a joint statement, the three nations emphasized the importance of addressing the root causes of the nuclear dispute, condemned unilateral sanctions, and reaffirmed Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy. However, China’s foreign ministry did not comment on the supposed agreement about limiting the scope of future discussions, instead emphasizing the urgency of resolving the nuclear issue fairly and sustainably.
Human rights. Iran’s crackdown on women, minorities, and activists is intensifying, with drones, facial recognition, and tracking apps being used to enforce strict hijab laws and suppress dissent. Despite President Masoud Pezeshkian’s promises to ease enforcement, authorities have escalated policing under the Noor Plan, deploying surveillance technology and the Nazer app to track and penalize women for hijab violations. At least 14 individuals remain at risk of execution amid reports of torture and forced confessions. Ethnic and religious minorities, particularly Kurds, Baluchis, and LGBTQ+ individuals, have been heavily targeted. Iran’s surveillance extends beyond its borders, with activists and journalists abroad facing harassment. Families of victims and dissidents are intimidated into silence, while many are forced into exile. In response, UN Special Rapporteur Mai Sato has condemned the country’s new hijab law, which imposes penalties of up to 15 years in prison, calling it an unprecedented expansion of state control over women.
Dating crackdown. Meanwhile, Iranian authorities have intensified their crackdown on online dating, detaining 15 people involved in organizing blind date events on social media. The arrests, announced by Public Security Police chief Majid Feyz Jafari, were carried out in coordination with the judiciary, citing rising family complaints and intelligence monitoring of the growing trend of anonymous meet-ups facilitated through digital platforms. Judicial spokesperson Asghar Jahangir confirmed that a criminal case had been opened against the detainees, with the main defendant remaining in custody and four others held due to an inability to post bail. The primary charge is “encouraging corruption and inciting immoral acts.” Critics see the crackdown as part of a broader effort to control digital spaces. Iran has long imposed severe internet restrictions, blocking platforms like YouTube, Twitter, and Instagram while closely monitoring domestic social media activity. Rights groups argue that suppressing digital interaction only drives it underground, making enforcement more difficult.
AI. Iran has unveiled a prototype of its national artificial intelligence platform, developed in partnership with Sharif University of Technology. The platform is designed to function in domestic languages and remain operational even in the event of internet disruptions, with a full release planned for March 2026. Vice-President Hossein Afshin emphasized that the platform will be continuously updated and highlighted its open-source nature as a safeguard against foreign sanctions. The project is being rolled out in phases, with initial testing and optimization in 2025, followed by limited access for experts and knowledge-based companies, a public beta, and a final release. According to officials, Iran’s AI platform does not rely on foreign APIs, ensuring its independence from external internet infrastructure. The initiative aims to close the gap between Iran and its regional competitors in AI development, an area where Iran has lagged in research output and industry growth. Sharif University has been sanctioned by the European Union, the UK, and Japan due to its links with Iran’s military and ballistic missile programs. The unveiling of the AI platform follows a European Union report warning of Iran’s growing use of AI for surveillance and repression. The report details how Iran has deployed AI-driven technologies for facial recognition during protests, automated propaganda dissemination, and internet censorship through its National Information Network (NIN), which isolates Iranian users from the global web. Iran’s AI expansion is reportedly supported by partnerships with Chinese firms and technology imports from the UAE, China, Turkey, and India. These developments raise concerns among Western governments about Iran’s increasing reliance on AI to strengthen state control and suppress dissent.
Crypto crackdown. Iranian authorities have seized over 240,000 cryptocurrency mining rigs in the past three years as part of a nationwide crackdown on illegal mining, according to the state electricity company Tavanir. The confiscated devices consumed an estimated 800 megawatts of electricity—nearly the equivalent of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant’s capacity—placing a significant strain on the country’s already struggling power grid. Tavanir’s CEO, Mostafa Rajabi Mashhadi, warned that unauthorized electricity use remains a major issue and called for stronger collaboration with the Economic Security Police to track down remaining illegal miners. Despite the crackdown, officials estimate that around 700,000 illegal mining rigs are still operating in Iran, collectively consuming approximately 2,000 megawatts of electricity. Iran’s energy crisis has worsened due to rising temperatures and increased industrial activity, leading to widespread power shortages. The strain on the grid has forced mass closures of government offices, banks, and schools across much of the country. Ali Nikbakht, chairman of Iran’s Power Plants Trade Association, has warned that the country could face a 25,000-megawatt electricity deficit next year—roughly one-third of its total consumption.
Drought & water shortage. Tehran is facing its worst drought in nearly six decades, with rainfall at record-low levels and water reservoirs supplying the capital nearly depleted. Mohsen Ardakani, head of Tehran’s Water and Wastewater Company, warned that the city’s four main reservoirs are only six percent full, urging residents to cut consumption amid a worsening crisis. Water usage has surged dramatically, with the city hitting a record 48,000 liters per second on 1st March, a 20% increase driven by New Year preparations. Nationwide, Iran is experiencing severe water shortages, with rainfall down 45% compared to last year and dam inflows 29% below the five-year average. The United Nations has classified Iran as experiencing “extremely high water stress,” warning of long-term economic, environmental, and social consequences if the crisis persists. Water shortages have sparked frequent protests, particularly in arid regions like Isfahan, where farmers blame the government for poor resource management. The crisis has also strained regional relations, with Iran accusing Afghanistan of restricting vital water flows to its eastern provinces through the newly built Pashdan Dam, further exacerbating tensions over scarce resources.
Sniper expansion. Iran’s army plans to train 3,000 snipers annually in its shooting schools and training facilities, the army’s ground forces commander has announced. Speaking at the opening of the first comprehensive shooting exhibition, Brigadier General Heidari stated, “We plan to train 3,000 snipers annually in our shooting schools and training facilities in the future.” He added that the army has equipped 86 shooting ranges using the capabilities of the shooting federation and has already trained 2,700 snipers for ground forces units in the first phase.
Turkey arrests. Turkey has arrested five suspects, including three Turkish citizens and two foreign nationals, for allegedly spying for Iranian intelligence. The operation, conducted across Istanbul, Antalya, and Mersin, was led by Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT) and the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office. The suspects are accused of engaging in military and political espionage, having contacted Iran’s IRGC intelligence and transferring sensitive information about Turkish military bases and critical locations abroad. Tensions between Turkey and Iran have been rising, especially after Turkey-backed rebels ousted Iran’s ally, the Assad dynasty, from Syria. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently criticized Iran’s use of regional militias, further straining relations. This is the latest in a series of espionage-related incidents involving Iran. In recent years, Turkey has arrested multiple individuals linked to Iranian intelligence, including those accused of plotting attacks against Israeli citizens and engaging in document forgery and human trafficking.
The apparent discussions on future Chinese and Russian mediation in nuclear talks may be significant, particularly if the signals around US-Russia rapprochement become stronger. Khamenei’s rejection of Trump’s initial outreach is not definitive; he has rewound public statements on this issue before.
Published 17th March 2025