Below you will find a selection of reports that we provide to existing clients. Please note that, as with everything we do, these are bespoke to those clients. The intelligence products that you receive could therefore look very different – we will tailor exactly to your needs.
- Malaysia: Macro Brief October 2025
Malaysia’s financial system is quietly shifting gears again. The focus this month wasn’t on rates or reserves. It was on structure, supervision and stability. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is tightening how credit is extended, how risks are priced and how financial data moves. Add in a handful of regulatory tweaks and consumer-facing changes and it’s… Read more: Malaysia: Macro Brief October 2025 - Russia Macro Brief: October 2025
Nails are now being whacked into the Russian coffin. UK, US and EU sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil are a powerful blow. Chinese concessions are easier than you might think – but look to wider oil market factors. Russia’s decline continues, now accelerating. Recent Chinese concessions not to purchase crude from Russian suppliers are less… Read more: Russia Macro Brief: October 2025 - Argentina Macro Brief: October 2025
Power gained, independence lost Milei’s midterm win gives him the votes to drive reforms but at the cost of deeper US financial dependence. US bailout doubled to USD 40 billion, turning liquidity support into a full geopolitical backstop. Short-term rates spiked above 80 % as the BCRA struggled with liquidity after scrapping LEFIs. Peso stabilised… Read more: Argentina Macro Brief: October 2025 - Vietnam Macro Brief: October 2025
September total exports data is highly encouraging – Vietnam is on course to smash 2024 figures. Given US tariffs went into effect on 7th August we await specific data on exports to the US for September to tell us the full story, but we’re optimistic that tariffs have only slightly dented US-bound exports. Exports market… Read more: Vietnam Macro Brief: October 2025 - Philippines Macro Brief: October 2025
Benchmark rate cut again, in line with our expectations. A new Digital Taxation Act brings foreign providers into line with domestic on VAT. GDP growth forecasts affected by weakening domestic demand, and dampening sentiment. Defying market expectations, but concurring with our predictions, the BSP cut the benchmark rate again on 9th October. The Asian Development… Read more: Philippines Macro Brief: October 2025 - Chile Macro Brief: October 2025
Chile is heading into the last quarter of 2025 with the brakes on and the pressure building. The Central Bank has held rates, headline inflation is softening and the Peso remains steady despite global volatility. But the story just beneath the surface is shifting. Core inflation is proving stubborn, employment is barely moving and the… Read more: Chile Macro Brief: October 2025 - Indonesia Macro Brief: October 2025
BI holds the benchmark rate at 4.75% after last month’s 0.25% cut. This caught the market by surprise, but not us – inflation was the key decider, as we forecast. IDR looks to be slowly regaining some strength as the economy now stabilizes. Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to hold the benchmark rate at 4.75% appears… Read more: Indonesia Macro Brief: October 2025 - Taiwan Macro Brief: October 2025
Taiwan remains stable but the landscape is shifting. The foundations are still holding but the strain is starting to show. Taiwan’s macro fundamentals remain solid. Rates are steady, inflation is cooling and employment is strong. But beneath that surface, the system is adjusting. The central bank is nudging housing policy, regulators are stepping up scrutiny… Read more: Taiwan Macro Brief: October 2025 - Brazil Macro Brief: October 2025
Brazil posts record trade results in September, set for a full-year $61Bn total trade surplus. The impact of US tariffs completely negated by considerable growths in non-US exports. EU-Mercosur agreement takes on renewed importance, further diminishing US power. Record trade results in September herald a trade surplus bounty by year end. Enviable export market diversification… Read more: Brazil Macro Brief: October 2025 - South Korea Macro Brief: October 2025
Rate hold again – but tone shifts: The BOK held at 2.5% for a second month but internal dissent is growing. Four out of seven board members now back a cut within the next quarter. Household debt in the crosshairs: Regulators are tightening operational controls – including stricter lending caps and zero LTV for some… Read more: South Korea Macro Brief: October 2025 - China Macro Brief: October 2025
US-China trade war reignites after US extends restrictions against sanctioned Chinese firms. China responds in kind with new restrictions linked to rare earth elements. Trump threatens additional 100% tariffs to commence 1st November. S&P drops by over 2% and cryptocurrencies suffer “largest liquidation event in crypto history”. Trump posts a passive aggressive comment to calm… Read more: China Macro Brief: October 2025 - India Macro Brief: October 2025
• RBI holds rates at 5.50% but upgrades FY26 GDP to 6.8% and cuts inflation forecast to 2.6% — policy space remains open. • Credit risk rules shift as RBI releases draft Expected Credit Loss (ECL) framework and new capital charge norms. • CBDC pilots expand with tokenised CDs in wholesale markets and a new… Read more: India Macro Brief: October 2025 - South Africa Macro Brief: October 2025
Base rate unchanged at 7%. Inflation slightly down to 3.3% in August from 3.5% in July. Trump’s July threat to apply additional 10% tariffs to BRICS+ aligned nations impractical. Record high for Jo’burg stock exchange is misleading – primarily due to gold price rises. RSA continues to have a bumpy ride, and the full effects… Read more: South Africa Macro Brief: October 2025 - Kenya Macro Brief: October 2025
MPC on hold: No move since August’s 25 bp cut; CBR steady at 9.50% ahead of the 7 October meeting. Inflation up, still tame: 4.6% in September, driven by food and transport, but below 5% and within the CBK’s target band. Private sector rebound: PMI back in expansion (51.9) – first since April – hinting… Read more: Kenya Macro Brief: October 2025 - Romania Macro Brief: October 2025
Another inflationary jump, benchmark rate held again. A stable leu (against the Euro), unemployment continues to edge up. The disparate parties of the already shaky coalition found another opportunity to compete with one another – but once again President Dan has shown his political skill. Monetary Policy The Banca Nationala a Romaniei (BNR) continues to… Read more: Romania Macro Brief: October 2025 - Türkiye Macro Brief: October 2025
At a Glance CBRT cut another 250bp to 40.5%, defying expectations as September inflation jumped to 33.3%. The Lira hit fresh lows (EUR/TRY 48.9), even as FX reserves climbed to a record USD 176 bn and Ankara sealed a USD 4.9 bn swap line with the UAE.Unemployment ticked up to 8.5%, showing the soft-landing story… Read more: Türkiye Macro Brief: October 2025
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