MACRO BRIEFS

Below you will find a selection of reports that we provide to existing clients. Please note that, as with everything we do, these are bespoke to those clients. The intelligence products that you receive could therefore look very different – we will tailor exactly to your needs.
  • Kenya Macro Brief: September 2025
    Kenya is in pause mode. The rate cut cycle is on hold, inflation has ticked higher but remains within target, and the August bounce in business activity already looks short-lived. It is a month defined less by fresh decisions than by the weight of what’s already in motion. Monetary Policy. The CBR holds at 9.50%… Read more: Kenya Macro Brief: September 2025
  • Türkiye Macro Brief: September 2025
    Türkiye’s new medium-term programme stretches the disinflation path out to 2027, but still pitches a return to price stability as inevitable. The FX-protected deposit scheme is finally gone, the Lira is under pressure, and the central bank looks set to slow its easing cycle. Markets also welcomed the lifting of the short-selling ban, another step… Read more: Türkiye Macro Brief: September 2025
  • Philippines Macro Brief: August 2025
    With US tariffs now agreed, however imbalanced the final outcome, a note of stability and predictability returns. Yes, it may well take several months for the full impact to become clear, but at present the headline figures are either stable or improving. We anticipate GDP growth that meets or exceeds 2024’s statistics, and at least… Read more: Philippines Macro Brief: August 2025
  • Russia Macro Brief: August 2025
    A raft of new sanctions were applied against Russia in August, and by a wide variety of nations and blocs, with more promised for September. The macro picture remains fragile, and several key indicators are beginning to emerge that signal deterioration. Monetary policy No further base rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR)… Read more: Russia Macro Brief: August 2025
  • Vietnam Macro Brief: August 2025
    After Vietnam secured arguably the best US tariff deal amongst all ASEAN nations we now wait to measure the true economic impact, and contrast it with the impacts on markets competing with Vietnam to continue supplying US consumers. Inflation remains below target, employment slightly up, the dong continues to slide against the USD. Monetary Policy… Read more: Vietnam Macro Brief: August 2025
  • Malaysia Macro Brief: August 2025
    Malaysia’s pivot is now unmistakeable. After a year of standing still, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has cut the OPR – and the ripple effects are spreading. Liquidity is looser, growth is softening and inflation remains muted. The Ringgit is still under pressure, black-market FX has crept back in and banks continue to cap overseas card… Read more: Malaysia Macro Brief: August 2025
  • Argentina Macro Brief: August 2025
    Rates unleashed, inflation tamed – and Phase 3 quietly begins Monetary Policy The Central Bank has officially let go of the steering wheel. In early July, the Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA) scrapped its benchmark interest rate and shifted to a market-determined pricing system. Rates are now floating, guided by liquidity auctions and… Read more: Argentina Macro Brief: August 2025
  • Chile Macro Brief: August 2025
    As summer comes to a close, Chile wraps up the season with a subtle but shifting economic narrative. The Central Bank has cut rates for the first time this year but stubborn inflation is slamming the brakes on further easing. Consumer prices unexpectedly increased in July and social equity issues surfaced amid new digital security… Read more: Chile Macro Brief: August 2025
  • Indonesia Macro Brief: August 2025
    A rate cut that surprised many … but will it hold? An inflation jump that’s nothing we’d bat an eyelid at in most other markets we cover, but which has drawn our focus. An economic growth jump, with strong forecasts for the year – some are dubious, we are not. Tariffs & GDP Effects As… Read more: Indonesia Macro Brief: August 2025
  • China Macro Brief: August 2025
    No deal yet between the US and China, but it does seem that both sides recognise that they do indeed need a deal and that neither side will emerge unscathed if relations deteriorate. Whether President Trump also understands this remains to be seen, however. Tariffs As we published our July brief US and Chinese officials,… Read more: China Macro Brief: August 2025
  • Brazil Macro Brief: August 2025
    US-Brazil relations continue to be fractious after President Trump announced additional tariffs linked to domestic political affairs within Brazil, and Brazil has now countered by launching a dispute at the WTO. Inflation has fallen, but has been bumpy this year so August’s figures will be key. Employment continues to improve, although job creation won’t match… Read more: Brazil Macro Brief: August 2025
  • Taiwan Macro Brief: August 2025
    Taiwan’s macro story remains steady, but not static. The central bank is holding the line, inflation is still falling and job market strength is firming into a structural asset. But fresh warnings from the CBC board show that policymakers are not complacent. The external environment remains noisy, and while Taiwan continues to balance well, new… Read more: Taiwan Macro Brief: August 2025
  • South Korea Macro Brief: August 2025
    South Korea is holding the line – but it is not relaxing. The Bank of Korea (BOK) has paused its rate cut cycle, yet forward guidance remains firmly on the dovish side. Domestic demand is still soft, capital outflows haven’t let up and financial risks continue to creep. At the same time, regulators are leaning… Read more: South Korea Macro Brief: August 2025
  • India Macro Brief: August 2025
    We are seeing strategic stillness but with some subtle shifts. India’s macro picture is calm on the surface but shifting underneath. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has held its line, but banks are already moving. Inflation is at record lows – though not for long. The Rupee looks steady, yet forward signals tell a… Read more: India Macro Brief: August 2025
  • South Africa Macro Brief: August 2025
    It has been a challenging year for the Republic of South Africa (RSA), and it looks set to become more challenging still. Relations with the US have taken a very clear nosedive since President Trump took office in January, and now the application of a 30% tariff on most South African goods entering the US… Read more: South Africa Macro Brief: August 2025
  • Romania Macro Brief: August 2025
    A rocky period for Romania. Persistent, higher than EU average unemployment, high government deficit, austerity measures being put in place, and now 15% US tariffs on EU goods. Ambitions to join the Euro are having to be put on hold again. Monetary PolicyFor a fifth time, after meeting on 5th August the Banca Nationala a… Read more: Romania Macro Brief: August 2025
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