Below you will find a selection of reports that we provide to existing clients. Please note that, as with everything we do, these are bespoke to those clients. The intelligence products that you receive could therefore look very different – we will tailor exactly to your needs.
- Indonesia Macro Brief: December 2025
Trade surplus continues its decline, with October’s figures failing to hit forecasts. Bank Indonesia (BI) held the benchmark rate once again, as we predicted – and we’re glad to see it. Whilst BI may have steadied the ship inflation-wise, we’re concerned that external forces that are eroding the trade surplus will have deeper negative effects… Read more: Indonesia Macro Brief: December 2025 - South Korea Macro Brief: December 2025
The Bank of Korea (BOK) is inching closer to its first rate cut, but it’s being held back by sticky inflation, currency pressure and a still-hot credit environment. The signal has shifted. Easing is no longer a question of “if”, but “how fast” and “under what guardrails”. While the Monetary Policy Board remains split, the… Read more: South Korea Macro Brief: December 2025 - South Africa Macro Brief: December 2025
October’s trade surplus narrows on the back of a 7.2% jump in imports, despite increased exports. 0.25% cut to the repo rate, based on encouraging inflation data. A new EU trade agreement set to diversify EU supply chains and secure much needed investment into RSA infrastructure. Trade After RSA’s September trade surplus hit a 2.5… Read more: South Africa Macro Brief: December 2025 - India Macro Brief: December 2025
India has cut rates but it hasn’t cut corners. The RBI lowered the repo rate to 5.25% in December, unveiled fresh liquidity support and reaffirmed its neutral stance. But this isn’t loose policy. It is strategic calibration. At the same time, the Rupee broke through the 90 to USD barrier for the first time, regulatory… Read more: India Macro Brief: December 2025 - China Macro Brief: December 2025
After Trump’s capitulation on 30th October, China has (temporarily) rolled back its retaliatory measures. Exports and trade surplus continue to rise, despite a 30% drop off in US bound goods. Both core inflation and CPI remain low, albeit perhaps too low. Having successfully stared down President Trump and his nonsensical trade war, President Xi Jinping… Read more: China Macro Brief: December 2025 - Kenya Macro Brief: December 2025
Kenya ends the year in better shape than it began it. Activity is accelerating, inflation has edged lower and the system has more breathing room on the external side. Policy remains loose, liquidity is behaving and the Shilling is holding its line. The tone has shifted from stabilisation to something closer to controlled momentum. Monetary… Read more: Kenya Macro Brief: December 2025 - Romania Macro Brief: December 2025
Inflation dips almost imperceptibly to 9.8%, benchmark rate held once again. Central Bank finally revises year-end inflation forecast significantly upward. Trade deficit narrowing – slowly. September 2025 data put it at USD2.9Bn. Monetary Policy At the 12th November meeting the Central Bank Banca Nationala a Romaniei (BNR) voted unanimously to hold interest rates at 6.50%,… Read more: Romania Macro Brief: December 2025 - Türkiye Macro Brief: December 2025
Türkiye enters December juggling stability, sentiment and policy discipline. The Central Bank (CBRT) has eased again but not recklessly. Inflation is softening but not convincingly enough to shift expectations, and capital controls remain the scaffolding holding the system together. What’s changing is the architecture: selective loosenings for state-linked corporates, tighter informal guidance for everyone else,… Read more: Türkiye Macro Brief: December 2025 - Russia Macro Brief: November 2025
The timing of current peace negotiations is nonsensical – the Rosneft/ Lukoil sanctions need more time to have real effect on Russia. The initial US 28-point peace plan was appalling, and Europe’s rework little better – both fail to address the crucial, central impasse for both sides. Trump’s thirst for a quick peace will, at… Read more: Russia Macro Brief: November 2025 - Malaysia Macro Brief: November 2025
Malaysia ends November with a policy stance that looks calm on the surface but much firmer underneath. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) held the line on rates again. Growth surprised to the upside. Inflation remains soft. The Ringgit is stable. Yet behind all that, the regulatory screws continue to tighten. Digital rules, data rules, cyber rules… Read more: Malaysia Macro Brief: November 2025 - Argentina Macro Brief: November 2025
Argentina closes November with a familiar contradiction. The official FX band is holding, reserves look marginally less fragile and Washington is still in the room. But dig an inch beneath the surface and you find tightening credit, a restless parallel market, an external financing plan that has quietly shrunk and a policy debate that is… Read more: Argentina Macro Brief: November 2025 - Vietnam Macro Brief: November 2025
October total exports data remains encouraging – Vietnam remains on course to smash 2024 figures. October’s data shows us a small decline in US exports growth, but not overly significant. We see the government’s efforts to stymie VND depreciation and stabilise the exchange rate paying off. As more exports data becomes available the picture becomes… Read more: Vietnam Macro Brief: November 2025 - Philippines Macro Brief: November 2025
Inflation holds steady at 1.7%. Hints of a base rate cut in December. Some significant drops in export volumes of key manufactured goods. The doldrums continue for the Philippines, and our GDP growth forecast by year end remains unchanged – even should, as we suspect they will, the central bank cut the base rate by… Read more: Philippines Macro Brief: November 2025 - Chile Macro Brief: November 2025
Runoff risk kicks in: Chile’s first round has delivered the most polarised runoff in decades with Jara vs. Kast on 14th December. Markets are shifting from quiet confidence to cautious hedging. Policy on hold: The Central Bank kept rates at 4.75% at its October meeting. Core inflation is still sticky and the next move hinges… Read more: Chile Macro Brief: November 2025 - Indonesia Macro Brief: November 2025
Inflation has ticked up yet again, now the highest since April 2024. Bank Indonesia due to meet on 19th Nov. Most analyst say they’ll either hold the benchmark rate or cut by another 0.25%. Yet, with inflation nearing the top end of BI’s target range, we’re more confident of either a further hold or, if… Read more: Indonesia Macro Brief: November 2025 - Taiwan Macro Brief: November 2025
Taiwan Macro Brief: November 2025 Steady surface, shifting undercurrents Taiwan’s macro story remains one of balance but we are seeing subtle changes in tone, tool‑use and regulatory posture. The Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) (CBC) hasn’t budged from its 2% benchmark rate but the message has grown more cautious. Meanwhile the Financial Supervisory… Read more: Taiwan Macro Brief: November 2025
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