As the week came to an end in Tehran, and with another round of diplomacy set to start, the Israelis lost patience and struck multiple targets in Iran. After three days the conflict has entered a volatile new phase, marked by precision strikes, missile barrages, and rising civilian casualties. What began as a targeted Israeli campaign to degrade Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure is escalating as Israel appears focused on weakening the Iranian state, not just deterring it from pressing ahead with its nuclear programme. Iran’s options to respond seem limited, although it continues to threaten the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks against US assets regionwide.
Precision, Retaliation, and Reach. The current military confrontation between Israel and Iran has become one of the most severe inter-state conflicts in the region since the 2006 Lebanon War, surpassing earlier covert campaigns in scale, visibility, and consequences. The hostilities were triggered by Israel’s launch of Operation Rising Lion, a campaign long in the preparation aimed at dismantling Iran’s military leadership and nuclear infrastructure. The strikes commenced on Friday and have continued into their third day, with attacks spreading across Tehran, Mashhad, Tabriz, and key strategic facilities in Kermanshah and Shahran. The strikes were not merely symbolic. Using a mix of long-range air power and assets reportedly placed inside Iranian territory, Israel has successfully carried out some of the longest-range and most surgical military operations in its history. Iran, in turn, has launched multiple waves of missile strikes, exceeding 200 projectiles, primarily targeting civilian and industrial zones in Haifa, Tel Aviv, and the Negev. While many of these were intercepted, the death toll in Israel has reached 11, with over 385 injured. Iran’s casualties have exceeded 215 deaths, with hundreds more wounded, most of them civilians. Tehran has activated national air defences, issued public shelter guidance, and opened metro stations and mosques as bomb shelters amid fears of more targeted Israeli strikes. Simultaneously, large explosions have rocked several districts in downtown Tehran, including near government ministries and energy infrastructure—demonstrating that Israel’s operational reach is both geographically expansive and strategically selective.
Strategic Targeting and Leadership Decapitation. Israel’s military objectives are sharply focused: disrupting Iran’s nuclear ambitions, eroding its missile and drone capabilities, and eliminating strategic leadership nodes. Among the most significant achievements is the assassination of key Iranian military and intelligence leaders, including:
– Hossein Salami, Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC
– Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of the Armed Forces General Staff
– Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the IRGC Aerospace Force
– Mohammad Kazemi, Intelligence chief of the IRGC
– Hassan Mohaqeq, Kazemi’s deputy
These leaders were killed in precision strikes, some reportedly carried out by drones launched from inside Iran—a method that echoes Ukraine’s tactics in recent strikes in Russian territory. Additional confirmed deaths include several nuclear scientists, IRGC aerospace officers, and intelligence staff. These assassinations not only deliver a tactical blow but also reflect a high degree of Israeli intelligence penetration into Iran’s inner security circles.
The scale of the operation is deliberate, echoing past campaigns against Hamas and Hezbollah: leadership decapitation, technological attrition, and internal destabilization, without necessarily seeking outright regime collapse. Israel is likely to further intensify its military operations across Iran in the coming days. The Wall Street Journal citing an Israeli official reported on 14 June that the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei is ‘not off the table’ for the Israeli military. And the scale of its ongoing attacks against fuel depots, gas facilities and refineries suggests that Israel is highly intent on causing a protracted security and governance crisis in the country. Israel’s continued issuance of evacuation warnings to Iranian civilians near military-industrial complexes suggests a prolonged operational window, possibly designed to sustain pressure while avoiding full-scale occupation or invasion.
Calibrated Iranian Military Responses. Despite the losses, Iran has not exhausted its capabilities. According to IRGC-affiliated media, the Islamic Republic has not yet deployed its most advanced systems, such as the Fateh-2, new-generation Sejjil, or Khorramshahr missiles, the latter of which boasts a two-tonne warhead. This suggests that Iran is calibrating its responses, attempting to avoid triggering a broader Gulf-wide retaliation or a full US intervention. Nevertheless, Iran has expanded its targeting range, striking civilian and military assets in Israel, and claiming the use of a Haj Qassem missile—a manoeuvrable ballistic system designed to evade Iron Dome defences. Iran retains two significant escalation options that could dramatically widen the conflict: targeting U.S. military and diplomatic assets across the region and attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. Either move would almost certainly provoke direct U.S. involvement and draw in Gulf states, escalating the confrontation into a broader regional war. However, such drastic steps appear unlikely unless Tehran perceives an existential threat—such as the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei or the destruction of core missile launch capabilities.
At present, there are no indications that Iran’s missile arsenal or naval forces—which would be essential for any attempt to blockade the Strait—have been substantially degraded. If employed, these escalation tools would likely serve as leverage, intended to coerce Gulf governments into pressing the U.S. and Israel for de-escalation, rather than as immediate warfighting measures.
Domestic Reaction. Tehran is tightening internal controls, with police arrests of suspected Israeli collaborators, drone operators, and civilians accused of supporting Israeli operations online. Civilians in Tehran report widespread anxiety, with many stockpiling essentials or attempting to leave the capital, amid air raid sirens.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has delivered increasingly defiant speeches, warning of “more painful” retaliation, and denouncing Israeli “war crimes” following attacks on residential zones and diplomatic facilities, including the Foreign Ministry compound. The regime has further claimed that Western nations enabling Israel’s operations risk regional retaliation—a threat extended to US and European bases.
Diplomatic Calls for Restraint. Global reaction has been a mix of calls for restraint, muted condemnation, and strategic silence. Donald Trump has maintained that the US is not militarily involved in the conflict, though he has warned Iran that any attack on American. personnel or facilities would be met with “force at levels never seen before.” While Trump continues to call for a peace deal—claiming “many calls and meetings” are underway—his administration’s decision not to block Israeli operations has sent a strong message about US priorities. China and Russia, though vocal in criticizing Israeli strikes, have limited their involvement to statements of condemnation. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated support for Iran’s sovereignty and denounced Israel’s violations of international law but stopped short of threatening retaliatory action or sanctions. Russia, stretched in Ukraine, lacks the capacity to intervene militarily, and its diplomacy remains focused on evacuating citizens from Iran.
Regional stakeholders such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia have expressed unease over the escalation. While officially neutral, editorials from key Gulf media outlets underline a clear reluctance to be pulled into war. Saudi Arabia has reiterated that it will not allow its airspace to be used for military operations, and the UAE has warned of dire regional consequences should Iran destabilize further.
The G7 summit in Alberta has been framed as an urgent platform to coordinate de-escalation strategies. The UK’s Keir Starmer and Canada’s Mark Carney emphasized the need for dialogue, while Germany’s Chancellor Merz explicitly warned Iran to halt its missile attacks and defended Israel’s pre-emptive actions against nuclear threats.
This conflict will hurt Iran’s economy – badly. If oil flows are choked or ports hit, the pain will be immediate. Even without a full Hormuz closure, global markets have already priced in a significant risk premium. Brent has jumped nearly USD 8 per barrel since the first Israeli strikes. Indian and Chinese buyers are delaying loadings or demanding discounts. Iran’s economy, already stretched, may struggle to absorb this next hit – especially if critical export routes become a bargaining chip in the conflict.
Strategically, Israel appears to be achieving its core objectives—crippling Iran’s nuclear progress, reducing command cohesion, and asserting aerial and intelligence superiority. However, the path forward is uncertain. Both Israel and Iran have options for further escalation – assassination of the Supreme Leader and attacks on US or GCC targets respectively. Netanyahu’s hints that regime change is a potential outcome are politically potent, but public calls for Iranian uprisings ring hollow while Israeli bombs fall on Iranian cities. External military pressure rarely topples regimes; instead, it may rally domestic support, particularly if national infrastructure and civilians are targeted. Iranians are already talking about concerns of civil war – ultimately, the regime’s durability will be tested not by accelerating economic decline, dissatisfaction, and fractured elite structures Conversely, if the current regime holds, it may emerge weakened, more repressive internally, and more determined externally.
However…. The coming 48–72 hours will be pivotal. A strike on symbolic leadership or US assets could tip this into regional war. But if both sides keep their provocations just below that line, we may see a drawn-out shadow conflict – punishing, unpredictable, and designed to avoid the abyss without stepping back from the brink.
Published: 16th June 2025