Vietnam Macro Brief: July 2025

Vietnam Macro Brief: July 2025

The big news in July was the agreement, in principle, of a trade deal between Vietnam and the USA. When compared to the deals secured by other Asian nations, it seems Vietnam has emerged victorious.
Hardline Shift
After the death of Vietnam’s long-serving leader Nguyen Phu Trong in July 2024, and the ascension of To Lam to the position of General Secretary and most powerful person in Vietnam’s government, we’ve witnessed a clear shift in Vietnam’s governance. Where previously we have seen an element of relaxation in governance so as to foster economic growth, To Lam’s leadership has certainly introduced a tightening of the state’s security apparatus and grip on the country – even at the expense of economic growth. This is a significant contrast with prior decades and is certainly worth noting. A return to a more authoritarian regime style is nudging Vietnam away from integration with the West, and more akin to the regimes of China and Russia. This trend, if it continues as such, does g...

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