Brazil Macro Brief: August 2025

Brazil Macro Brief: August 2025

US-Brazil relations continue to be fractious after President Trump announced additional tariffs linked to domestic political affairs within Brazil, and Brazil has now countered by launching a dispute at the WTO. Inflation has fallen, but has been bumpy this year so August’s figures will be key. Employment continues to improve, although job creation won’t match 2024.
US Relations, Visas, and Tariffs
In our last brief we covered the nosedive in US-Brazil relations propelled by a Supreme Court decision against former President Bolsonaro, much to President Trump’s chagrin. Commencing 6th August the US imposed new tariffs totalling 50% on the majority of Brazilian goods (less civil aircraft, parts, and orange juice), and also applied sanctions and visa restrictions against various Brazilian justice system figures associated with the decision against Bolsonaro.
As we concluded in that brief “Brazil is not about to be bullied by the US nor President Trump. She has plenty of options, and whil...

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