In August we closed with a question: “The reforms are intact, but the test now is stamina – can Milei keep markets onside while cushioning the strain on the real economy?” September has given us the answer. Reserves are draining, controls are creeping back and Washington is preparing a bailout. Milei has failed the stamina test.
Monetary Policy
After months of tightening, the Central Bank has shifted gears again. Repo and deposit rates have been cut by around 10 percentage points, with banks pulling savings rates down as low as 40%. The timing is no accident: with U.S. support pledged, policymakers are leaning on external lifelines to justify a softer stance. In August, we flagged rate volatility and SME squeeze.
IMF & U.S. Lifeline
The IMF disbursement in August was a stopgap. The real news now is Washington. The U.S. is negotiating a USD 20 billion swap line and has signalled readiness to buy Argentine debt outright. That is no longer technical support – it is geopolitical bailou...
You must be signed in to read this content. Please enter your user name and password below for access. Want the full Brief? Register free for full access to 16+ countries. Register for free here.