At a Glance
CBRT cut another 250bp to 40.5%, defying expectations as September inflation jumped to 33.3%.
The Lira hit fresh lows (EUR/TRY 48.9), even as FX reserves climbed to a record USD 176 bn and Ankara sealed a USD 4.9 bn swap line with the UAE.Unemployment ticked up to 8.5%, showing the soft-landing story remains fragile.
Under the surface, black-market spreads widened, short-selling resumed, and regulators are watching FX inflows more closely. Türkiye is still easing, but the policy rope is tightening.
Overview
Türkiye has doubled down on easing even as inflation turned back up. The central bank’s latest 250bp rate cut took markets by surprise, pushing the policy rate down to 40.5%. The Lira is sliding again and the inflation jump in September has revived doubts over how long the CBRT can keep cutting. At the same time, a new swap line with the UAE, record-high FX reserves and a stronger tourism season are buying Ankara some breathing room. But … beneath that, private-sector FX...
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