Key Points
CBRT slows pace of cuts: trims the one-week repo rate by 100 bp to 39.5%, signalling a shift to data-dependent easing. Inflation pressures re-emerge: September CPI at 33.3% y/y. Anticipate market expectations rising toward 31.8% year-end. Lira hits new lows: trades around TRY 41.9/USD and TRY 48.9/EUR; depreciation continues with limited intervention. FX reserves at record USD 176.4 billion; UAE USD 4.9 billion swap line supports liquidity buffer. Medium-term plan intact: inflation projected 28.5% (2025), single digits by 2027; growth ~ 3.3%. Corporate FX debt & banking-sector mismatches: remain key vulnerabilities under BRSA supervision. Unemployment 8.5% (Aug): up 0.5 pp; real-sector strain persists. Black-market FX spreads widen; no new card restrictions abroad; regulators stay alert on Decree 32.
Overview Türkiye is easing but now with more caution. The central bank slowed the pace of cuts in October, trimming rates by just 100 bp to 39.5%, as inflation picked up a...
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