Kenya Macro Brief: November 2025

Kenya Macro Brief: November 2025

CBR cut again: Eighth consecutive rate reduction - down 25 bp to 9.25% on 7th October as inflation stays at 4.6%. Momentum building: PMI 52.5 (Oct). Fastest expansion since early 2022; output and new orders up sharply. Debt realignment deepens: Kenya converts around USD5 billion of Chinese loans into RMB, easing FX risk and strengthening Beijing ties. IMF talks intensify: Debate over securitised-debt classification could shape size and timing of the new funded programme. Diversified partnerships: World Bank fast-tracks BETA disbursements; Qatar pledges multi-billion investments in agriculture and infrastructure. Credit transmission improving: Private-sector credit up 5% year on year, confirming cheaper money is starting to reach key sectors. External balance pressure: CAD widened to 2.1% of GDP, showing growth now imports vulnerability. Shilling steady, reserves solid: approximately KSh129/USD1. USD11.2 billion in reserves (4.9 months cover).

Kenya is moving from steady recovery into ...

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