India is holding steady on the surface but shifting gear underneath. The RBI has left rates untouched, dialled up its growth forecast and eased its inflation view. But this isn’t coasting. It is calibration. Behind the stability lies a flurry of activity. We see tighter regulation, fintech restructuring, renewed FX pressure and emerging stress signals in employment and retail investment. Quietly but decisively, India is rerouting its financial wiring. Monetary Policy & Macro Outlook The RBI held the repo rate at 5.50%, reinforcing its neutral stance and confirming what we signalled back in October. No rush to cut. No need to tighten.
Growth upgraded: FY26 GDP forecast now 6.8% (up from 6.5%). Inflation down: CPI trimmed to 2.6% (from 3.1%). Easing isn’t off the table but the bar is high. External risks and transmission gaps still matter.
Reconnect with our April 2025 report when the easing cycle began and October 2025 when the brakes were “feathered” but the engine still running....
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