Türkiye enters December juggling stability, sentiment and policy discipline. The Central Bank (CBRT) has eased again but not recklessly. Inflation is softening but not convincingly enough to shift expectations, and capital controls remain the scaffolding holding the system together. What’s changing is the architecture: selective loosenings for state-linked corporates, tighter informal guidance for everyone else, and a parallel market that is slowly becoming a more permanent fixture of the financial system. Beneath it all, corporate FX demand still sets the tempo and the political calendar is beginning to shape the rhythm. Scenarios Box - Late 2025 to 2026 With inflation, FX and credit now moving in closer alignment, the macro outlook splits into three clear paths. Here is how the next phase could break. Base Case - Managed Grind • CBRT keeps cutting in controlled steps but avoids signalling a glide path• Inflation eases into the high 20s–low 30s but stays sticky• Capital controls remai...
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