Iran’s pressures across its political, economic, and security landscapes continue. The Islamic Republic is grappling with intensifying public dissent from collapsing air quality, rising labour and resistance against hijab enforcement. Regionally, Tehran continues to project resolve, advancing its satellite and missile programs. The Rial has seen another historic low.
Orbit on the horizon. Iran will launch three satellites on 28th December using a Russian Soyuz rocket from the Vostochny Cosmodrome, an expansion of Tehran’s space program. The satellites are meant to support agriculture, natural-resource management, and environmental monitoring. Russia previously orbited an Iranian telecoms satellite in July. Iranian Space Agency chief Hassan Salarieh, said Iran is preparing to launch the Zafar-2, Paya, and new Kosar imaging satellites, and to conduct its first test flight from the new Chabahar Space Centre. Iran claims to be producing satellites with imaging resolutions of one meter and investing in Chabahar as a growing launch hub capable of handling heavier liquid-fuel rockets and enabling sun-synchronous and geostationary missions. Iran has also signed private contracts for satellite constellations and highlighted recent Russian launch cooperation. It insists its space program is civilian, while western governments argue the technology overlaps with long-range missile development. President Pezeshkian says Iran’s missile and space capabilities strengthen national deterrence.
Credibility shot down. The head of Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB admitted the network damaged its credibility by airing a false report claiming an Israeli F-35 had been shot down during the June conflict. An official source provided the information, and the outlet repeated it without independent verification. The network head said they had no direct means to confirm whether the jet was hit and later learned the claim was unreliable. Iranian media on 13th June reported the jet’s shooting down and even named possible crash sites, along with the alleged capture of the pilot; claims Israel immediately rejected. State TV repeated the story the next day, asserting two F-35s had been destroyed. IRIB retracted the report more than four days later without explanation. IRIB defended the broadcaster’s reliance on official institutions for sensitive information but acknowledged that audience numbers continue to decline, saying IRIB has not fabricated polling and that viewership has been dropping since the early 2010s.
Tehran Trip Declined. Lebanon’s foreign minister, Youssef Raji, declined an invitation to visit Tehran from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, while Beirut pushes ahead with its plan to disarm Hezbollah by 2026. Israel’s damaging blows against the group in the past 12 months accelerated Lebanon’s effort to place all weapons under state control. Iran opposes the disarmament drive, insisting Hezbollah’s arsenal is justified by continued Israeli threats. In a written reply posted by Lebanon’s foreign ministry, Raji said he was open to dialogue but that “conditions are not suitable” for a visit, proposing instead a meeting with Araghchi in a neutral third country. He said Lebanon seeks constructive ties with Iran, but only on the basis of mutual sovereignty and non-interference and stressed that only the state should control arms and decisions of war and peace. Tehran’s invitation came amid renewed debate in Lebanon over Hezbollah’s future, following public backlash to a comment by adviser to the Supreme Leader and former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati. Velayati claimed publicly that Hezbollah was more vital to Lebanon than “bread and water.” Raji rejected the remark as foreign meddling. The rejection comes as Israel and Lebanon increase contacts through a ceasefire-monitoring committee, with Beirut saying the mechanism could help verify Israeli claims that Hezbollah is rebuilding its arsenal. Israel continues to strike targets it says are linked to the group, despite the 2024 ceasefire.
Opportunities in Donbas. Russia’s embassy in Tehran denied any role in flyers circulating in the city advertising for Iranian men to enlist in the Russian army for cash rewards. Leaflets circulating near the embassy offered men aged 18 to 45 bonuses of up to $18,000, monthly pay of $2,500, plus housing and medical benefits. The flyers directed readers to a Telegram channel promoting the campaign as official and state backed. The median salary for a member of Iran’s armed forces is less than $300 per month. One video posted there showed a man in Russian uniform introducing himself in Persian as an Iranian recruit. Similar recruitment efforts have been reported in South Asia and Africa.
Tech Bro Backlash. A leading tech executive was sentenced to 74 lashes and had his company’s license revoked after authorities accused his firm of hosting a mixed gender gathering where some women appeared without hijabs. Nima Ashrafzadeh, CEO of e-commerce platform Pindo, was punished over an internal Yalda Night celebration last year that officials said violated morality rules. Pindo is a subsidiary of Digikala whose founder confirmed the verdict on X, warning that it sends a damaging signal to Iran’s digital economy, especially after recent government promises of support. He said the case shows a widening gap between official rhetoric and the realities facing private-sector entrepreneurs. The ruling comes amid a renewed state campaign to enforce mandatory hijab laws in public and private spaces. Judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei recently announced tighter coordination among police, prosecutors, and regulators, warning that businesses could face closure over violations. A group of 155 lawmakers has also pressed for stricter enforcement. Despite the crackdown, many women in major cities continue to appear unveiled, and videos of mixed gatherings and casual dress remain common, underscoring persistent public resistance. The annual marathon in Kish Island saw 2,000 women taking part, many unveiled. Organisers were arrested.
Clean air rare. 170,000 people have gone to emergency wards since the start of the month with heart and respiratory problems caused by air pollution, in a continuing widespread public health crisis. World Health Organization data, shows that most Iranian cities suffer from dangerously high levels of pollutants, with Ahvaz, Tehran, Isfahan and Mashhad having only 2, 14, 16 and 28 clean-air days last year respectively.
Rial. The Rial dropped further to new historic lows on the black market, ending this reporting period at rate of 1,278,000 IRR to the USD. The official rate remains at 42,122 IRR to the USD, unchanged since 2018.
Patience Running Out. Employees of Iran’s State Welfare Organization and contract workers from the oil, gas, and power sectors gathered outside parliament to protest low wages and insecure employment. Welfare staff said their pay no longer covers basic living costs and complained of sharp salary gaps between provincial workers and central-office employees. Temporary energy-sector workers demanded the removal of intermediary contractors and long-promised pathways to permanent jobs, saying delays have left many without stable income or benefits. This demonstration followed a major walkout at the South Pars gas hub in Asaluyeh, where about 5,000 contract workers stopped work over wages and job security. Labor unrest has grown nationwide as families struggle with rising prices and volatile markets, with rights groups recording thousands of protests and strikes over the past year.
Coup Claims Surface. Senior IRGC commanders believe that Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu backed a coordinated bid to topple the Islamic Republic Government during the June war. Reports have surfaced in Iran that a 12-hour meeting in Europe on 14th June brought together opposition figures, separatists, monarchists, foreign intelligence assets, and even Islamic State members to plan a “government-in-exile.” The claims, reported in local media, are that they intended to enter Iran once fighting began. The claims have been used to arrest 123 members of the monarchist “Javidan Guard,” plus Christian convert leaders allegedly recruited by foreign intelligence.
Missile Ramp Up. Iran has resumed large-scale production of ballistic missiles about six months after its 12-day war with Israel, according to a leaked IDF briefing to the Israeli Knesset. The briefing Tehran’s missile program is “recovering at a fast pace” and remains a top strategic priority for Iran’s military planners. Iran has intensified missile and drone testing in the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea.
Border Instability. Three security forces personnel were killed on 10th December near Zahedan in Sistan-Baluchistan. The troops, part of the Quds Base, died in a clash with armed militants. The southeastern region (bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan) regularly sees unrest and attacks by Sunni Baluch militant groups. Earlier this year, a deadly assault on a Zahedan courthouse killed nine people; Jaish al-Adl later claimed responsibility. The group has repeatedly targeted Iranian security forces and is designated a terrorist organization by both Iran and the US.
As is often the case, not much good news from the regime’s perspective this month. The same themes continue: misgovernment; public dissatisfaction; domestic economic woe; combined with outward defiance. Lebanon’s assertiveness (emboldened by Israel) against Hizbollah, and by extension, Iran is significant, highlighting the deterioration of the Islamic Republic’s regional position.