Another good month of exports, but imports are rising, narrowing the trade surplus. Selic rate held at 15%, inflation continues to fall … but very gently. Any base rate reduction is only likely to be in small, cautious increments. US Supreme Court is currently deliberating over the legality of Trump’s tariffs, and a decision against Trump may well give some Republicans the courage to cross him. Trade November’s data is in, and whilst the USD5.84Bn trade surplus was not as good as October’s bumper $6.96Bn, it nonetheless still handsomely exceeded September’s $3Bn. Total exports were $28.5Bn in November, up 2.4% YoY buoyed by a 25% uplift in agricultural and manufactured goods exports which were somewhat offset by a sharp fall in extractives exports. The surplus, however, narrowed versus November last year’s $6.75Bn because, although exports are growing, imports are growing proportionally faster – by 7.4% YoY to $22.7Bn, driven by higher purchases of manufactured products, fuels, vehicle...
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