Argentina Macro Brief: May 2025

Argentina Macro Brief: May 2025

Stabilisation, liberalisation, and a renewed search for Argentina’s hidden ‘mattress dollars’. Argentina is now entering a new phase of reforms and rebuilding but a quieter campaign is also underway: coaxing billions in undeclared cash back into the formal economy. This could be transformative.
Monetary Policy
The Central Bank cut rates again in April - this time by 10 percentage points to 60%. It marked the fourth consecutive cut since Milei took office and signals growing confidence in the disinflation path. Markets have been watching this closely. Unlike previous easing cycles, there’s no sign of panic - just methodical recalibration.
Exchange Rate
The peso now trades around ARS 1,136 per USD, with the gap between official and parallel rates continuing to narrow. Unification has largely held, helped by tighter fiscal control and fewer distortions. It’s not a free float, but it’s a more honest system - and the FX market has stabilised accordingly.
Capital Controls
On 14 April, the go...

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