Argentina closes November with a familiar contradiction. The official FX band is holding, reserves look marginally less fragile and Washington is still in the room. But dig an inch beneath the surface and you find tightening credit, a restless parallel market, an external financing plan that has quietly shrunk and a policy debate that is becoming harder to ignore. The story this month is simple. Stability is still being defended, but the cost of defending it is rising. Monetary Policy. Benchmark rates haven’t moved, but that doesn’t mean the system is stable. The Banco Central de la República Argentina’s (BCRA) post-swap rate corridor is still being tested. Real financing costs remain painfully high, especially for firms borrowing outside the banking elite. Banks have pulled back on lending, citing volatility and currency risk. SMEs are feeling it first. This is the new reality. Even with the US backstop in place, domestic credit conditions are tightening. November makes clear that Arg...
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