Author: Editor
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December 2025
Egypt ends 2025 in the centre of the storm but with little shelter from the rain. Gaza has shifted from leverage to liability, Sudan’s war is spilling steadily north and the parliamentary elections are exposing the limits of manufactured legitimacy. Diplomatically Cairo is everywhere but strategically it is overstretched. Economically the numbers still look orderly…
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December 2025
Egypt ends 2025 in the centre of the storm but with little shelter from the rain. Gaza has shifted from leverage to liability, Sudan’s war is spilling steadily north and the parliamentary elections are exposing the limits of manufactured legitimacy. Diplomatically Cairo is everywhere but strategically it is overstretched. Economically the numbers still look orderly…
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Romania Macro Brief: December 2025
Inflation dips almost imperceptibly to 9.8%, benchmark rate held once again. Central Bank finally revises year-end inflation forecast significantly upward. Trade deficit narrowing – slowly. September 2025 data put it at USD2.9Bn. Monetary Policy At the 12th November meeting the Central Bank Banca Nationala a Romaniei (BNR) voted unanimously to hold interest rates at 6.50%,…
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When Inflation Stops Mattering: The New Geography of Strategic Capital
Investors aren’t supposed to behave like this. Conventional wisdom says foreign investors will run from high inflation. In theory no one should be sending long term capital to countries where 30% price growth wipes out real returns before you’ve even taken off your jacket. Yet in 2025, as one analyst put it, Türkiye’s ‘sky high…
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Türkiye Macro Brief: December 2025
Türkiye enters December juggling stability, sentiment and policy discipline. The Central Bank (CBRT) has eased again but not recklessly. Inflation is softening but not convincingly enough to shift expectations, and capital controls remain the scaffolding holding the system together. What’s changing is the architecture: selective loosenings for state-linked corporates, tighter informal guidance for everyone else,…
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December 2025
The mood in Mexico is shifting. Political and security pressures are rising fast, and this time they’re coming from within. The assassination of Carlos Manzo - a defiant mayor who embodied local resistance to cartel violence - has triggered a national reckoning. Protests are spreading, federal authority is under fire and the Sheinbaum government is…
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Russia Macro Brief: November 2025
The timing of current peace negotiations is nonsensical – the Rosneft/ Lukoil sanctions need more time to have real effect on Russia. The initial US 28-point peace plan was appalling, and Europe’s rework little better – both fail to address the crucial, central impasse for both sides. Trump’s thirst for a quick peace will, at…
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Malaysia Macro Brief: November 2025
Malaysia ends November with a policy stance that looks calm on the surface but much firmer underneath. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) held the line on rates again. Growth surprised to the upside. Inflation remains soft. The Ringgit is stable. Yet behind all that, the regulatory screws continue to tighten. Digital rules, data rules, cyber rules…
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Argentina Macro Brief: November 2025
Argentina closes November with a familiar contradiction. The official FX band is holding, reserves look marginally less fragile and Washington is still in the room. But dig an inch beneath the surface and you find tightening credit, a restless parallel market, an external financing plan that has quietly shrunk and a policy debate that is…