Author: Editor
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South Africa Macro Brief: September 2025
Last month we said “whilst about 9% of South Africa’s total exports are destined for US consumers this translates to only around 2.7% of GDP. Most commentators might assess therefore that President Trump’s 30% tariffs will have a measure of impact, but nothing catastrophic. This might be true a year or two from now, but…
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September 2025
Iran faces a volatile remainder of the month, balancing tentative nuclear cooperation with the IAEA against domestic opposition and the looming threat of UN snapback sanctions. Hardliners decry the deal made in Cairo, while moderates warn of systemic collapse without urgent reform. At the same time, oil exports to China surge, the rial stabilises slightly…
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September 2025
Iran faces a volatile remainder of the month, balancing tentative nuclear cooperation with the IAEA against domestic opposition and the looming threat of UN snapback sanctions. Hardliners decry the deal made in Cairo, while moderates warn of systemic collapse without urgent reform. At the same time, oil exports to China surge, the rial stabilises slightly,…
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Kenya Macro Brief: September 2025
Kenya is in pause mode. The rate cut cycle is on hold, inflation has ticked higher but remains within target, and the August bounce in business activity already looks short-lived. It is a month defined less by fresh decisions than by the weight of what’s already in motion. Monetary Policy. The CBR holds at 9.50%…
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Romania Macro Brief: September 2025
A significant inflationary spike, steady interest rates, and a very fragile coalition government – Romania watching is not for the faint of heart at present. Monetary Policy The Banca Nationala a Romaniei (BNR) continues to hold interest rates at 6.5% - one of the highest rates in Europe. No cuts are expected until mid-2026.… Read…
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Türkiye Macro Brief: September 2025
Türkiye’s new medium-term programme stretches the disinflation path out to 2027, but still pitches a return to price stability as inevitable. The FX-protected deposit scheme is finally gone, the Lira is under pressure, and the central bank looks set to slow its easing cycle. Markets also welcomed the lifting of the short-selling ban, another step…
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September 2025
Egypt enters autumn with new pressures layered on its already delicate balancing act. Diplomatically, Cairo is doubling down on Gaza red lines while stitching in Gulf partners and keeping EU and UN levers engaged. Regionally, Nile tensions are back in play after Ethiopia declared the GERD fully operational, prompting open warnings.…… Read the rest
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September 2025
The election clock is ticking and there is much to unpack. Hassan has formally launched her campaign and the race looks firmly tilted in Chama Cha Mapinduzi party’s (CCM) favour. Opposition parties remain boxed out, court coverage of Tundu Lissu’s treason trial has been restricted and the state’s grip on political space is tightening.…… Read…
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September 2025
Egypt enters autumn with new pressures layered on its already delicate balancing act. Diplomatically, Cairo is doubling down on Gaza red lines while stitching in Gulf partners and keeping EU and UN levers engaged. Regionally, Nile tensions are back in play after Ethiopia declared the GERD fully operational, prompting open warnings.…… Read the rest
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