Author: Editor
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Türkiye Macro Brief: December 2025
Türkiye enters December juggling stability, sentiment and policy discipline. The Central Bank (CBRT) has eased again but not recklessly. Inflation is softening but not convincingly enough to shift expectations, and capital controls remain the scaffolding holding the system together. What’s changing is the architecture: selective loosenings for state-linked corporates, tighter informal guidance for everyone else,…
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December 2025
The mood in Mexico is shifting. Political and security pressures are rising fast, and this time they’re coming from within. The assassination of Carlos Manzo - a defiant mayor who embodied local resistance to cartel violence - has triggered a national reckoning. Protests are spreading, federal authority is under fire and the Sheinbaum government is…
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Russia Macro Brief: November 2025
The timing of current peace negotiations is nonsensical – the Rosneft/ Lukoil sanctions need more time to have real effect on Russia. The initial US 28-point peace plan was appalling, and Europe’s rework little better – both fail to address the crucial, central impasse for both sides. Trump’s thirst for a quick peace will, at…
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Malaysia Macro Brief: November 2025
Malaysia ends November with a policy stance that looks calm on the surface but much firmer underneath. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) held the line on rates again. Growth surprised to the upside. Inflation remains soft. The Ringgit is stable. Yet behind all that, the regulatory screws continue to tighten. Digital rules, data rules, cyber rules…
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Argentina Macro Brief: November 2025
Argentina closes November with a familiar contradiction. The official FX band is holding, reserves look marginally less fragile and Washington is still in the room. But dig an inch beneath the surface and you find tightening credit, a restless parallel market, an external financing plan that has quietly shrunk and a policy debate that is…
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Vietnam Macro Brief: November 2025
October total exports data remains encouraging – Vietnam remains on course to smash 2024 figures. October’s data shows us a small decline in US exports growth, but not overly significant. We see the government’s efforts to stymie VND depreciation and stabilise the exchange rate paying off. As more exports data becomes available the picture becomes…
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Philippines Macro Brief: November 2025
Inflation holds steady at 1.7%. Hints of a base rate cut in December. Some significant drops in export volumes of key manufactured goods. The doldrums continue for the Philippines, and our GDP growth forecast by year end remains unchanged – even should, as we suspect they will, the central bank cut the base rate by…
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Chile Macro Brief: November 2025
Runoff risk kicks in: Chile’s first round has delivered the most polarised runoff in decades with Jara vs. Kast on 14th December. Markets are shifting from quiet confidence to cautious hedging. Policy on hold: The Central Bank kept rates at 4.75% at its October meeting. Core inflation is still sticky and the next move hinges…
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November 2025
A political bombshell landed this month as Sheikh Hasina was sentenced to death in absentia for her role in last year’s crackdown. BNP says the upcoming February elections offer a rare shot at resetting the country’s democratic compass. The banking system remains fragile - with five Islamic lenders now being forcibly merged - while exports…