Brazil Macro Brief: June 2025
A visit by an IMF team in late May and early June provided a timely check-in on Brazil’s macro progress and its policy path ahead. Meanwhile, the new Economic Reciprocity Law has given the government fresh powers to hit back against unilateral foreign measures. That includes not only sanctions but also environmental rules seen as more demanding than Brazil’s own.
Monetary Policy, Inflation & Interest Rates
In March, the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) raised the Selic rate to 14.25 percent, its highest since 2016. Then in May, it pushed further to 14.75 percent, the highest since 2006, in an effort to keep inflation in check. At the time of writing, there has been no further move, but the BCB remains cautious. Inflation is still running above the 3 percent target, meaning another hike can’t yet be ruled out.
Tariffs
US tariffs on Brazilian goods remain at the broad 10 percent level set in April, with steel now facing a much higher 50 percent rate. Domesti...
You must be signed in to read this content. Please enter your user name and password below for access. Want the full Brief? Register free for full access to 16+ countries. Register for free here.