Brazil Macro Brief: November 2025

Brazil Macro Brief: November 2025

Brazil’s exports and trade surplus continue to go from strength to considerable strength. Selic rate held at 15%, but falling inflation suggests potential for a reduction by year end. The US$1.76Bn trade deficit with the US is a hollow victory for Trump – yes, Brazil is indeed buying more from the US than it sells to the US, but this also means less and less tariff dollars into the US Treasury, and it hasn’t hurt Brazil in the slightest – as this and last months’ trade surpluses clearly show. Trade Yet another bumper month for Brazil. Whilst exports to the USA fell by 37.9% in October, they jumped by 33.4% to China in the same period. October’s trade surplus hit US$6.96Bn in October – an enormous leap upward from the $3Bn surplus recorded in September and a 70.2% leap up from the same period last year, caused by not only a 0.8% drop in imports but also a 9.1% increase in exports. Total imports for October were $25.011Bn versus exports of $31.975Bn. Key export commodities that drove the...

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