Category: Iran

If last month was a bad one for the Islamic Republic (and it was), this month was truly وحشتناک  or Vahshatnāk. Horrible. Iran now faces one of the most significant challenges to its regional strategy in decades, with key ally Assad’s fall marking a major blow to its influence and leaving its hardline factions grappling…

Israel counters, striking military targets in Tehran and elsewhere. The sites struck leave Iran without key air defences and severely damage its military-industrial base. Meanwhile Donald Trump’s return to the White House is likely to see an even more hostile approach to Iran. Israel strikes back. On 26th October, Israel launched the largest assault on…

A busy reporting period, where we are seeing an ineffectual second Iranian missile barrage on Israel. With the deaths of Nasrallah and all viable successors as leaders of Hezbollah, and Hamas severely depleted, Iran’s key proxies are neutralised. In the eyes of many of the Islamic Republic’s adversaries, this is a unique opportunity to strike…

The new president’s cabinet, while not as inclusive as fellow reformists would like, has at least been approved by the Majilis in a show of unity, under pressure from the Supreme Leader. Pezeshkian’s political honeymoon had barely started when he was faced with his first major crisis – responding to Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader…

The new president received the Supreme Leader’s blessing and was sworn in following the result of the election earlier in July. Conservatives in the military, political and economic realms have provided public advice to him throughout the month. Of these, the most predictable are the IRGC’s warnings to avoid seeking a return to negotiations on…

Overview. The first round of the presidential election took place on 28th June, with a further round of voting now set for 5th July after no candidate won 50% of the vote. The second round will see surprise reformist Masoud Pezeshkian compete against arch hardliner Saeed Jalili; they polled 43% and 39% respectively.…… Read the…

Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash led to a period of national mourning. Tipped as a future Supreme Leader, Raisi was not a popular politician. His demise was widely mocked on social media in Iran, the overriding sentiment being that, for many Iranian people, any trauma associated with the crash comes from more senior…

Iran and Israel took the Middle East region to the brink of war this month as Israel’s assumption that Iran would not respond to a strike on diplomatic premises in Damascus proved flawed. Both sides resisted their own hardliners' demands to escalate, but even their more-limited responses have crossed a Rubicon.…… Read the rest

Turnout in nationwide legislative elections was low, as expected. Conservatives – there was little else to choose from – will dominate the Majlis and Guardian Council in the next term. As the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement marks its first year, the agreement is holding up amid tensions in the region, with Iranian proxies coming under further pressure…

Electioneering kicked off this month for March’s legislative elections – turnout is expected to be pitiful to the extent that fabrication of voter numbers may be evident. Strategic military engagement with Russia expands, highlighted by more diverse arms deliveries, while regionally Iran appears to be advocating for restraint among its proxies and allies.…… Read the…