Category: Iran
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February 2024
Iran made headlines throughout January, never for positive reasons. Early in the month, crowds commemorating assassinated general Qassim Soleimani were targeted by two suicide bombers, killing 95 people. Iran lashed out rhetorically at Israel and the US, but Islamic State quickly announced its involvement. Iran fired missiles into Pakistan, which promptly retaliated in kind, although…
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January 2024
Iran-linked militias have continued to step up their activities against Israeli interests and US forces in the Middle East and have extended their activities against maritime trade in the Red Sea. Iran is becoming more vocal in justifying these attacks, while remaining careful not to take or imply responsibility. The killing of a senior IRGC…
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December 2023
Iran-linked militias have stepped up their activities against Israeli interests and US forces in the Middle East, as anticipated, albeit Iran remains keen not to become directly involved in a wider regional conflagration. Israel-Gaza. Iran’s top diplomat Hossein Amirabdollahian met with the leader of Hezbollah in an undisclosed location in Lebanon.…… Read the rest
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November 2023
Overview. It appears to be convenient, for now, for all sides to downplay Iran’s involvement in Hamas’s 7th of October attacks on Israel; however, two Iranian sources consulted in the past few days are adamant that, such is the relationship between Hamas, Hezbollah and the IRGC, the attack is highly unlikely to have been initiated…
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October 2023
Overview. The conclusion of the prisoner exchange on 18th September confirms that the US and Iran are committed to the de-escalation plan laid out by the US earlier this year; nevertheless, the outlook for a broader agreement remains gloomy. Iran’s foreign policy, including its strategic relationship with Russia, and its suppression of domestic protests continues…
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September 2023
Overview. A tentative deal – of sorts, and not acknowledged as such by either party – seems to have been hatched between Iran and the US. The indications are that a prisoners-for-funds agreement may have been evolving alongside commitments by Iran to slow both its uranium enrichment activities and some of its regional militancy against…
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August 2023
Overview. Last month’s indicators of there being an agreement – of sorts – in the pipeline appear to have fizzled out, amid rising naval tensions in the Gulf. Domestically, the regime now feels confident enough to return to enforcing the hijab laws. Although enforcement is likely to lead to localised protest, the government will shore…
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July 2023
Overview. Another month of significant high-level diplomatic activity. Speculation abounds that the Iranians and Americans will reach an accommodation, trading limited sanctions relief for reductions in the pace of the nuclear programme. Watch for further US approvals for the unfreezing of Iranian offshore funds and any statements on the release of dual-national prisoners.…… Read the…
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June 2023
Overview. Regional dynamics continue to evolve following the Saudi Iranian diplomatic deal, albeit with a hiccup in mutual embassy openings. The regime hopes to draw a line under months of protest, simultaneously announcing an official investigation into the conduct on both sides and attempting to reassert itself in the enforcement of hijab rules.…… Read the…
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May 2023
Overview. Rapid progress appears to be being made as a flurry of diplomatic activity has followed the announcement of a China-brokered deal to restore diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia. Embassy openings, mutual presidential and royal visits, and trade deals are being discussed, announced, or arranged in rapid succession. But while regional mood music is improving,…