Category: Iran
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April 2023
Overview. Saudi Arabia and Iran struck an agreement to restore diplomatic ties. Building on progress underway for several months, and with China playing a key role in getting the deal over the line, it is important, but does not fully resolve the complex challenges within the bilateral relationship. This year, the Persian New Year (Nowruz)…
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March 2023
Overview. Drone and air attacks by Israel signal an escalation – albeit still within bounds – against Iranian defence and critical economic infrastructure. Iranian action against Israeli-owned shipping underlines its disruptive capacity too. Calibrated conciliatory action by the Supreme Leader further bled the protest movement of more momentum this month, while the IAEA reported a…
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February 2023
Overview. The regime has responded to on-going protests (now in their fifth month) with more lethal force in the outlying provinces and with a series of death sentences and executions of young people accused of being involved in protest activity. This seems to have cooled all but the most fervent demonstrators’ enthusiasms for now.…… Read…
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January 2023
Overview. Deadly protests continue into a fourth month but have yet to lead to concessions by the regime or produce alternative political leaders. Iran feels further international isolation as China and Iran’s regional rivals cosy up to one another and Iran is kicked out of a UN Commission for its response to protesters’ calls for…
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November 2022
Overview. Nationwide protests continued beyond the 40-day mark resulting in the predictably violent crackdown, but also in obvious decision-making paralysis at the top of the regime on how to respond. The protests’ broad social, economic, and geographical bases mark this series of unrest as distinct from the last two bouts of serious political violence.…… Read…
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October 2022
Overview. Internet and phone services were cut by the government in an effort to contain violent national protests that left dozens dead. The trigger was the death of a young woman following a period of police custody after an arrest for not wearing her headscarf correctly. This latest period of unrest chips away further at…
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September 2022
Overview. The EU presented the US and Iranian sides with Josep Borrell’s final proposal for a renewed JCPOA. Both sides have submitted comments and we await next steps. It seems likely that we’re not there yet. JCPOA. Iran received a US response to the EU-proposed ‘final’ text on 24th August following Iran submitting initial comments…
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August 2022
Overview. Iran comes out unequivocally on the side of Russia in the Ukraine conflict, having previously sat on the fence. Access to Russian wheat supplies and Putin’s pledge of investment in the Iranian energy sector probably influenced the course correction. Meanwhile the round of JCPOA revival talks in Doha produced no definitive results but hinted…
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July 2022
Overview. The prospects for the renewal of the JCPOA look bleak (again) this month as the stalemate drags on; but neither party want to be the spoiler. The Supreme Leader is forced to comment publicly on protests which continue as the cost-of-living crisis accelerates. JCPOA. Iran is further escalating its uranium enrichment process by preparing…
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June 2022
Overview. The government’s effort to end the foreign exchange subsidy system has triggered protests and raised the risk of nationwide social instability. Increases in prices of staples have led to protests in several Iranian cities this month; public discontent will grow in the coming days and weeks, and the security forces will crack down violently.………