Category: Iran

Overview. The US terrorism designation applied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) is the major blocker to renewal of the JCPOA. Both sides will find it hard to row back on statements made and commitments given on the issue, but it will now be critical to securing an agreement.…… Read the rest

Overview. The release of long-held dual national prisoners, the payment of a sizeable outstanding debt by the UK to Iran and encouraging noises from negotiators made a revived deal look closer than ever this month. The last-minute potential Russian spoiler appears to have lost its edge, although nothing of substance has actually been proffered by…

Overview. Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian described the final issues being discussed in Vienna as ‘solvable’ during a phone conversation with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell. He also significantly softened Iran’s stance on key issues while at the Munich Security Conference.  A renewal of the JCPOA appears to be closer after this month’s round of talks.………

Overview. January started with little movement in negotiations in Vienna in the first half of the month; however, as talks continued Iran appeared to slightly moderate its position. Key demands continue to be unacceptable to the US. Tehran is strengthening its ties with Beijing and Moscow, but new agreements with both are unlikely to deliver…

Overview. The seventh round of nuclear talks in early December made little progress. Expectations were low – as expected Iran presented maximalist positions and Western parties emphasised that time is running out. An eighth round started on 27th December at which we can expect more delay from the Iranian side.…… Read the rest

Overview. Iran fails to compromise with the IAEA on centrifuge production line access, boding badly for the nuclear talks resuming in Vienna soon. It appears that Iran will continue with its maximalist demands in the talks’ initial phases. Nearly a year into the Biden presidency, the GCC now supports a revised JCPOA; a volte face…

Overview. Iran nominates a hardline opponent of the JCPOA to be its lead negotiator, while committing to re-join stalled talks in November. A major cyberattack hits the country’s petrol distribution network and regional relations become more complex: tensions with Azerbaijan are on the rise, the Iraqi people vote against Iran’s influence in their country, but…

Overview. The UN General Assembly brings no breakthrough in the resumption of nuclear talks but does see a glimmer of rhetorical convergence from Iran and the United States. Talks will restart on Raisi’s schedule, while every month brings a further element of brinkmanship with the IAEA and the Western JCPOA signatories.…… Read the rest

Overview. A new president with a formidable in-tray takes over this month. His closeness to Khamenei and his cabinet picks suggest an insular period to come for Iran, with little prospect of fundamental change, internally or externally. Presidential Transition. Iran’s new president Ebrahim Raisi assumed power as the country’s 13th president.…… Read the rest

Overview. Nuclear negotiations will go to a seventh round next month. Progress in the sixth round appears to have been limited, to the frustration of the United States and allies. Meanwhile, unrest triggered by popular dissatisfaction at power and water supply shortages has roots in wider economic woes. JCPOA v 2.0.…… Read the rest