Category: Iran

Overview. Hardline conservative Raisi wins the presidency as predicted on record-breaking low voter turnout. While it is in his interests to pursue – or abide by – a revived JCPOA should one materialise, he has no intention of discussing non-nuclear agenda items with the US, meaning Iran’s international relationships are set to worsen.…… Read the…

Overview. JCPOA revival talks continued this month while domestically the final list of Presidential hopefuls became clearer. The Guardian Council weeded out heavy hitting candidates who may have challenged Khamenei’s favoured Ebrahim Raisi, the current Chief Justice and front runner. Presidential Election. The Guardian Council, which vets candidates for national office, approved seven candidates to…

Overview. Three rounds of indirect talks between Iran and the US took place in April, producing some encouraging noises. Despite both US State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry spokespeople ending the last round cautioning that progress was slow, and that major issues remained, the talks appear not to have been derailed by the remarkable (Israeli)…

Overview. The New Year (Nowruz) holiday takes place against the backdrop of tightening coronavirus restrictions and no let-up in the geopolitical situation. Signals of a move towards a JCPOA-like agreement look unlikely before the June presidential elections. A new strategic partnership is signed with China and the Suez blockage helps make the case for an…

Overview. Tehran raised its pressure on Washington to move quickly on sanctions relief amid signs that President Biden’s administration is not in a rush to do so. Iranian politicians’ announcements on further deviations from nuclear compliance exemplify this. Biden’s team will coordinate with European allies on Iran policy in a marked change from his predecessor’s.………

Overview. Tensions have risen following the assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in late November. The conservative Majlis ordered the government to up its nuclear activities and further reduce cooperation with international monitoring agencies. The US and Israel have openly moved military forces into the Gulf and the US Embassy in Baghdad has come under…

Overview. The assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh has once again raised regional tensions and indicates an Israeli (and probably Trump Administration) desire to complicate the regional landscape ahead of Trump’s departure. The expected and hoped-for win for Joe Biden was welcomed by many Iranians. The President Elect has recently written that he will re-join…

Overview. Iranians of all political persuasions and none wait for the outcome of the US elections to find out what (they assume) will be the trajectory of relations with America, and by extension, their economic fortunes. The reality is of course more complicated and quick reversal of economic and social woes is not likely, particularly…

Overview. Again, predictably, the Trump Administration failed to garner any credible support at the Security Council to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran (‘snapback’). Despite unilaterally insisting that member states are now obliged to enforce them, few will, representing a major diplomatic failure. While maximum pressure is not a diplomatic success, it continues to contribute (along…

Overview.  Not unsurprisingly, the US failed to win significant support for maintaining the UN conventional arms embargo against Iran (ending the embargo is envisaged in the 2015 JCPOA). Trump will now pursue sanctions snapback, which will further pit US allies against it and see Iran try to occupy the moral & diplomatic high ground.…… Read…