Category: Iran

Overview. The desire for a bilateral meeting at the UN General Assembly (UNGA) on Trump’s part was said to be a factor in the sacking of the stridently anti-Iran US National Security Advisor this month. While John Bolton’s departure may be positive for US-Iran relations in the medium term, serious attacks on Saudi oil targets,…

Overview. Diplomatic moves around the G7 raised hopes of direct US-Iran talks, but initial positive noises from Iran were rolled back as conservatives applied pressure to the Reformist government. The Iranian tanker held in Gibraltar Grace 1 was released, while Iran still holds UK-registered vessel Stena Impero.  Domestically, anti-corruption arrests look increasingly politically-motivated and are…

Overview. Once again, Europe finds itself in a difficult position, as it tries to uphold the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) in the face of the American policy of maximum pressure on one hand, and Iranian misbehaviour on the other. Iran no longer feels compelled to comply with enrichment and storage constraints imposed by an agreement…

Overview. This reporting period has seen the Iran-US dispute rise to international prominence with oil tankers attacked, a US unmanned aircraft shot down by Iranian air defences, strong rhetoric on both sides and newly-imposed economic sanctions. Under the strategy of maximum pressure being applied by the US, a cornered Iran is lashing out, using the…

Overview. The month of May has seen a build-up of US military hardware and bellicose rhetoric from both sides. Direct conflict seemed almost inevitable mid-month, until Donald Trump signalled that conflict and regime change were not Administration aims. The economy continues to worsen which, combined with the threat of war, has led to societal debate…

Overview. Further pressure was applied to the economy and regime this month as the US said it would not extend sanctions waivers on Iranian oil exports. With inflation rising sharply, particularly for food, and the rial suffering more losses this month, Iranians’ standard of living is set for greater decline.…… Read the rest

Overview. Iranian and US leaders issued statements and delivered speeches on the eve of the Iranian New Year (Nowrouz), 21st March. Messages had heavily political tones, with leaders blaming one another for increasing the hardship Iranian people face. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei labelled the new year (1398) “The Year of Production Boom”.…… Read the rest

Overview. Economic conditions worsen for ordinary Iranians and the country’s armed forces suffer their worst domestic terrorist incident for years in the restive south east. Limited good news came in the form of an FATF reprieve as counter-measures on the banking sector remain suspended until at least June. In practice, Iran’s banks remain isolated and…

Overview. As Iran marks the 40th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution that toppled the Shah, tension has mounted between it and its adversaries, with each ratcheting up rhetoric and actions.In the face of US hostility Iran should bedoing all it can to keep the EU close, but its ballistic missile tests and further allegations of…

Overview. With no positive announcements on the European special purpose vehicle payments mechanism, Iran’s banks have still not overcome international payments problems, meaning difficulties in importing food, medicines and other essentials. The government continues to react to increasing economic hardship by bolstering the Rial, cracking down on ‘economics crimes’ and raising public sector wages.…… Read…