Category: Macro Briefs
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Indonesia Macro Brief: December 2025
Trade surplus continues its decline, with October’s figures failing to hit forecasts. Bank Indonesia (BI) held the benchmark rate once again, as we predicted – and we’re glad to see it. Whilst BI may have steadied the ship inflation-wise, we’re concerned that external forces that are eroding the trade surplus will have deeper negative effects…
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South Korea Macro Brief: December 2025
The Bank of Korea (BOK) is inching closer to its first rate cut, but it’s being held back by sticky inflation, currency pressure and a still-hot credit environment. The signal has shifted. Easing is no longer a question of “if”, but “how fast” and “under what guardrails”. While the Monetary Policy Board remains split, the…
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South Africa Macro Brief: December 2025
October’s trade surplus narrows on the back of a 7.2% jump in imports, despite increased exports. 0.25% cut to the repo rate, based on encouraging inflation data. A new EU trade agreement set to diversify EU supply chains and secure much needed investment into RSA infrastructure. Trade After RSA’s September trade surplus hit a 2.5…
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India Macro Brief: December 2025
India has cut rates but it hasn’t cut corners. The RBI lowered the repo rate to 5.25% in December, unveiled fresh liquidity support and reaffirmed its neutral stance. But this isn’t loose policy. It is strategic calibration. At the same time, the Rupee broke through the 90 to USD barrier for the first time, regulatory…
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China Macro Brief: December 2025
After Trump’s capitulation on 30th October, China has (temporarily) rolled back its retaliatory measures. Exports and trade surplus continue to rise, despite a 30% drop off in US bound goods. Both core inflation and CPI remain low, albeit perhaps too low. Having successfully stared down President Trump and his nonsensical trade war, President Xi Jinping…
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Kenya Macro Brief: December 2025
Kenya ends the year in better shape than it began it. Activity is accelerating, inflation has edged lower and the system has more breathing room on the external side. Policy remains loose, liquidity is behaving and the Shilling is holding its line. The tone has shifted from stabilisation to something closer to controlled momentum.… Read…
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Romania Macro Brief: December 2025
Inflation dips almost imperceptibly to 9.8%, benchmark rate held once again. Central Bank finally revises year-end inflation forecast significantly upward. Trade deficit narrowing – slowly. September 2025 data put it at USD2.9Bn. Monetary Policy At the 12th November meeting the Central Bank Banca Nationala a Romaniei (BNR) voted unanimously to hold interest rates at 6.50%,…
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Türkiye Macro Brief: December 2025
Türkiye enters December juggling stability, sentiment and policy discipline. The Central Bank (CBRT) has eased again but not recklessly. Inflation is softening but not convincingly enough to shift expectations, and capital controls remain the scaffolding holding the system together. What’s changing is the architecture: selective loosenings for state-linked corporates, tighter informal guidance for everyone else,…
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Russia Macro Brief: November 2025
The timing of current peace negotiations is nonsensical – the Rosneft/ Lukoil sanctions need more time to have real effect on Russia. The initial US 28-point peace plan was appalling, and Europe’s rework little better – both fail to address the crucial, central impasse for both sides. Trump’s thirst for a quick peace will, at…
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Malaysia Macro Brief: November 2025
Malaysia ends November with a policy stance that looks calm on the surface but much firmer underneath. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) held the line on rates again. Growth surprised to the upside. Inflation remains soft. The Ringgit is stable. Yet behind all that, the regulatory screws continue to tighten. Digital rules, data rules, cyber rules…