Category: Macro Briefs
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Russia Macro Brief: December 2025
Zelenskyy is working his magic – the new US-Ukrainian 20-point peace plan is vastly more sensible than the prior US 28-point plan and European re-work. There are clear efforts to address the crucial, central impasse for both sides – a Ukrainian security guarantee against Russian aggression, and a Russian security guarantee against NATO encroachment.… Read…
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Vietnam Macro Brief: December 2025
Mid-December trade data showed total imports-exports hit $883.72Bn, with full-year figures likely to hit $920Bn, 16.9% growth YoY. Despite tariffs the US trade deficit with Vietnam continues to grow, with November data showing $121.6Bn, up 27.5% versus the same 11-month period in 2024. CPI only creeping upwards whilst core inflation creeps downwards, headline policy rate…
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Argentina Macro Brief: December 2025
Argentina: December 2025 December was not about headlines. It was about admission. The Central Bank finally acknowledged what markets had been signalling for months: the FX anchor was no longer fit for purpose. Inflation was easing, unemployment was improving and reserves were holding - but the framework holding them together was under strain.… Read the…
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Philippines Macro Brief: December 2025
Inflation falls back to 1.5%, still beneath the 2-4% target band. As predicted, the central bank cut the key rate by 0.25%. Trade deficit is narrowing, but don’t judge too soon. Mixed news this month; positive in some areas, negative in others. We’re neither especially bearish, nor bullish – but it is clear that the…
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Chile Macro Brief: December 2025
Chile Macro Brief: December 2025 December marked a decisive turning point for Chile. Politically, the 14th December runoff ended months of uncertainty with a clear rightward shift under José Antonio Kast. Monetarily, the Central Bank pivoted from caution to action, cutting rates as inflation fell faster than expected. On the surface, it was a clean…
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Indonesia Macro Brief: December 2025
Trade surplus continues its decline, with October’s figures failing to hit forecasts. Bank Indonesia (BI) held the benchmark rate once again, as we predicted – and we’re glad to see it. Whilst BI may have steadied the ship inflation-wise, we’re concerned that external forces that are eroding the trade surplus will have deeper negative effects…
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Taiwan Macro Brief: December 2025
Taiwan ends the year with policies anchored, inflation low and the exchange rate under control. But listen closely, and you will hear that the tone has sharpened. The Central Bank isn’t blinking, but it is watching the currency like a hawk. Regulatory priorities are shifting again - this time from fire fighting to pre-emption.… Read…
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South Korea Macro Brief: December 2025
The Bank of Korea (BOK) is inching closer to its first rate cut, but it’s being held back by sticky inflation, currency pressure and a still-hot credit environment. The signal has shifted. Easing is no longer a question of “if”, but “how fast” and “under what guardrails”. While the Monetary Policy Board remains split, the…
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Brazil Macro Brief: December 2025
Another good month of exports, but imports are rising, narrowing the trade surplus. Selic rate held at 15%, inflation continues to fall … but very gently. Any base rate reduction is only likely to be in small, cautious increments. US Supreme Court is currently deliberating over the legality of Trump’s tariffs, and a decision against…
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South Africa Macro Brief: December 2025
October’s trade surplus narrows on the back of a 7.2% jump in imports, despite increased exports. 0.25% cut to the repo rate, based on encouraging inflation data. A new EU trade agreement set to diversify EU supply chains and secure much needed investment into RSA infrastructure. Trade After RSA’s September trade surplus hit a 2.5…