Category: Indonesia

A rate cut that surprised many … but will it hold? An inflation jump that’s nothing we’d bat an eyelid at in most other markets we cover, but which has drawn our focus. An economic growth jump, with strong forecasts for the year – some are dubious, we are not. Tariffs & GDP Effects As…

As we said in our prior report “all in all, Indonesia feels increasingly positive”. Now, with the successful negotiation of a trade deal with the US that effectively makes Indonesia the most favoured nation in all of ASEAN, Indonesia’s horizon looks even brighter. For, even if US trade does indeed only currently account for 2%…

Continued trade negotiations with the USA, now entering their second round next week in Washington, and generally with a very positive feel. A slight reduction in interest rates, with inflation staying well within target range. Further improvement in FATF compliance too. All in all, Indonesia feels increasingly positive. Tariffs At the beginning of June Indonesia’s…

Headlines have centred on Indonesia’s trade tensions with the US, particularly around the paused 32% ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on Indonesian exports. Those tensions have sparked capital outflows and weighed on the Rupiah. Still, perspective is key. Exports to the US make up just 2% of GDP, and beneath the noise, the macro backdrop remains broadly stable.……

Unemployment continues to fall across Indonesia, although the vast majority of employment is both informal and focused within primary industries. The introduction of GR8/2025, a revised Export Earnings Rule from GR36/2023 is expected to boost FOREX reserves by circa USD100Bn pa, but requires exporters of a wide range of primary industry products to retain 100%…