Category: Macro Briefs
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China Macro Brief: October 2025
US-China trade war reignites after US extends restrictions against sanctioned Chinese firms. China responds in kind with new restrictions linked to rare earth elements. Trump threatens additional 100% tariffs to commence 1st November. S&P drops by over 2% and cryptocurrencies suffer “largest liquidation event in crypto history”. Trump posts a passive aggressive comment to calm…
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India Macro Brief: October 2025
• RBI holds rates at 5.50% but upgrades FY26 GDP to 6.8% and cuts inflation forecast to 2.6% — policy space remains open. • Credit risk rules shift as RBI releases draft Expected Credit Loss (ECL) framework and new capital charge norms. • CBDC pilots expand with tokenised CDs in wholesale markets and a new…
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South Africa Macro Brief: October 2025
Base rate unchanged at 7%. Inflation slightly down to 3.3% in August from 3.5% in July. Trump’s July threat to apply additional 10% tariffs to BRICS+ aligned nations impractical. Record high for Jo’burg stock exchange is misleading – primarily due to gold price rises. RSA continues to have a bumpy ride, and the full effects…
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Kenya Macro Brief: October 2025
MPC on hold: No move since August’s 25 bp cut; CBR steady at 9.50% ahead of the 7 October meeting. Inflation up, still tame: 4.6% in September, driven by food and transport, but below 5% and within the CBK’s target band. Private sector rebound: PMI back in expansion (51.9) - first since April - hinting…
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Romania Macro Brief: October 2025
Another inflationary jump, benchmark rate held again. A stable leu (against the Euro), unemployment continues to edge up. The disparate parties of the already shaky coalition found another opportunity to compete with one another – but once again President Dan has shown his political skill. Monetary Policy The Banca Nationala a Romaniei (BNR) continues to…
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Türkiye Macro Brief: October 2025
At a Glance CBRT cut another 250bp to 40.5%, defying expectations as September inflation jumped to 33.3%. The Lira hit fresh lows (EUR/TRY 48.9), even as FX reserves climbed to a record USD 176 bn and Ankara sealed a USD 4.9 bn swap line with the UAE.Unemployment ticked up to 8.5%, showing the soft-landing story…
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Philippines Macro Brief: September 2025
US tariffs impact is becoming clearer, but we encourage you to look past the histrionic headlines and dig into the data – the true impact on the Philippines is likely to be much more muted than some are saying. Inflation crept up in August but remains enviably low. We continue to anticipate a further benchmark…
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Russia Macro Brief: September 2025
The Russian giant is beginning to sway. At long last, after years of sanctions, the effects are finally beginning to be felt. The Russian economy is now punchdrunk, weak at the knees, and it is no longer a question of whether the giant will fall, but when. Monetary policy The Central Bank of Russia (CBR)…
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Vietnam Macro Brief: September 2025
As we said in our last report “after Vietnam secured arguably the best US tariff deal amongst all ASEAN nations we now wait to measure the true economic impact …” and it seems we already have some data available to quantify that impact. In the short-term Vietnam will indeed take a sizeable hit … but…
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Malaysia Macro Brief: September 2025
Last month we said Malaysia’s pivot was now unmistakeable. Now, with the July cut behind us, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has shifted into a “hold and assess” mode. Inflation is soft, growth is middling and liquidity is looser than it looks on the surface. The Ringgit has narrowed into a tighter band, while enforcement around…