Category: Macro Briefs
-
Brazil Macro Brief: August 2025
US-Brazil relations continue to be fractious after President Trump announced additional tariffs linked to domestic political affairs within Brazil, and Brazil has now countered by launching a dispute at the WTO. Inflation has fallen, but has been bumpy this year so August’s figures will be key. Employment continues to improve, although job creation won’t match…
-
Taiwan Macro Brief: August 2025
Taiwan’s macro story remains steady, but not static. The central bank is holding the line, inflation is still falling and job market strength is firming into a structural asset. But fresh warnings from the CBC board show that policymakers are not complacent. The external environment remains noisy, and while Taiwan continues to balance well, new…
-
South Korea Macro Brief: August 2025
South Korea is holding the line – but it is not relaxing. The Bank of Korea (BOK) has paused its rate cut cycle, yet forward guidance remains firmly on the dovish side. Domestic demand is still soft, capital outflows haven’t let up and financial risks continue to creep. At the same time, regulators are leaning…
-
India Macro Brief: August 2025
We are seeing strategic stillness but with some subtle shifts. India’s macro picture is calm on the surface but shifting underneath. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has held its line, but banks are already moving. Inflation is at record lows - though not for long. The Rupee looks steady, yet forward signals tell a…
-
South Africa Macro Brief: August 2025
It has been a challenging year for the Republic of South Africa (RSA), and it looks set to become more challenging still. Relations with the US have taken a very clear nosedive since President Trump took office in January, and now the application of a 30% tariff on most South African goods entering the US…
-
Romania Macro Brief: August 2025
A rocky period for Romania. Persistent, higher than EU average unemployment, high government deficit, austerity measures being put in place, and now 15% US tariffs on EU goods. Ambitions to join the Euro are having to be put on hold again. Monetary PolicyFor a fifth time, after meeting on 5th August the Banca Nationala a…
-
Kenya Macro Brief: August 2025
Kenya’s economy is riding a wave of earlier monetary easing, stable exchange rates and a landmark debt issuance on the horizon - and all eyes are on whether that momentum will hold through the next quarter. Monetary Policy. The CBR stands at 9.75% following the June 10 MPC decision – the sixth straight cut.… Read…
-
Türkiye Macro Brief: August 2025
Türkiye has leaned back into stimulus this month, with the central bank delivering a bigger than expected rate cut and edging closer to scrapping its costly FX-protected deposit scheme. Inflation is slowing, the Lira has held broadly steady and Ankara is talking up a coordinated policy push to anchor the disinflation path.… Read the rest
-
Philippines Macro Brief: July 2025
US-Philippines trade talks have concluded – but the result feels not just unbalanced, but geopolitically self-defeating. The BSP next meets on 28 August, and with inflation still falling, another rate cut looks likely. Monetary Policy, Inflation & Interest RatesAs we expected, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) cut its policy rate to 5.25% in June.……
-
Russia Macro Brief: July 2025
For the second time since July 2023 the Central Bank of Russia once again cut interest rates, this time by 200bp after inflation fell again. Additional sanctions have been applied by the EU and UK, with the US seemingly close to adding a highly punitive additional tariff rate to those nations that continue to import…