Category: Macro Briefs
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Argentina Macro Brief: September 2025
In August we closed with a question: “The reforms are intact, but the test now is stamina – can Milei keep markets onside while cushioning the strain on the real economy?” September has given us the answer. Reserves are draining, controls are creeping back and Washington is preparing a bailout. Milei has failed the stamina…
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Chile Macro Brief: September 2025
Chile is in calibration mode. The Central Bank has paused again, headline inflation is easing but core remains sticky and the Peso is holding steady under external pressure. The labour market is stuck, regulation keeps edging forward and with the election now weeks away the politics are doing most of the heavy lifting.… Read the…
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Indonesia Macro Brief: September 2025
Yet another surprise rate cut, but one that we feel was too much, too soon. The inflation jump that we pointed out in our last report remains a concern, and the reason we’re not convinced of the wisdom of this latest rate cut so soon after another. Widespread social unrest, centered around political grievances, engulfed…
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China Macro Brief: September 2025
New economic data show that China has made significant strides in offsetting the economic impacts of the US-China trade stand-off. A recent flurry of diplomatic engagement between the US and China, both at numerous levels and from numerous departments, indicates a gradual softening of the highly confrontational tête-à-tête that President Trump began with his “reciprocal”…
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Brazil Macro Brief: September 2025
US-Brazil relations deteriorate further, with President Trump taking what looks to be personal offence at former President Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction and sentencing, and now Brazil’s chief prosecutor charging Bolsonaro’s son, a congressman. Right now Trump’s nightmare scenario for himself and his family after his term ends is playing out in real time in Brazil and…
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Taiwan Macro Brief: September 2025
Taiwan’s macro picture remains one of discipline and quiet strength. The central bank is holding its line, inflation is easing, capital controls remain light-touch and the labour market is still pulling its weight. But there are tremors under the surface - from volatile capital flows to growing exposure to external political risk.… Read the rest
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South Korea Macro Brief: September 2025
South Korea is still balancing on the edge. The Bank of Korea (BOK) has held rates at 2.50% again, but the board is quietly pivoting toward easing. Inflation is falling, household debt pressures persist and capital outflows are keeping policymakers on high alert. Behind the scenes, financial regulators are pushing ahead on digital innovation and…
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India Macro Brief: September 2025
India’s macro picture continues to evolve at speed. The RBI is holding steady for now, but the rupee has come under renewed pressure and liquidity tools are being deployed more aggressively. Exporters are crying foul, foreign card use is facing tighter scrutiny and fintech enforcement is entering controversial new territory. Beneath the headlines, the system…
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South Africa Macro Brief: September 2025
Last month we said “whilst about 9% of South Africa’s total exports are destined for US consumers this translates to only around 2.7% of GDP. Most commentators might assess therefore that President Trump’s 30% tariffs will have a measure of impact, but nothing catastrophic. This might be true a year or two from now, but…
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Kenya Macro Brief: September 2025
Kenya is in pause mode. The rate cut cycle is on hold, inflation has ticked higher but remains within target, and the August bounce in business activity already looks short-lived. It is a month defined less by fresh decisions than by the weight of what’s already in motion. Monetary Policy. The CBR holds at 9.50%…