Category: Macro Briefs
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Chile Macro Brief: November 2025
Runoff risk kicks in: Chile’s first round has delivered the most polarised runoff in decades with Jara vs. Kast on 14th December. Markets are shifting from quiet confidence to cautious hedging. Policy on hold: The Central Bank kept rates at 4.75% at its October meeting. Core inflation is still sticky and the next move hinges…
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Indonesia Macro Brief: November 2025
Inflation has ticked up yet again, now the highest since April 2024. Bank Indonesia due to meet on 19th Nov. Most analyst say they’ll either hold the benchmark rate or cut by another 0.25%. Yet, with inflation nearing the top end of BI’s target range, we’re more confident of either a further hold or, if…
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Taiwan Macro Brief: November 2025
Taiwan Macro Brief: November 2025 Steady surface, shifting undercurrents Taiwan’s macro story remains one of balance but we are seeing subtle changes in tone, tool‑use and regulatory posture. The Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) (CBC) hasn’t budged from its 2% benchmark rate but the message has grown more cautious.… Read the rest
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Brazil Macro Brief: November 2025
Brazil’s exports and trade surplus continue to go from strength to considerable strength. Selic rate held at 15%, but falling inflation suggests potential for a reduction by year end. The US$1.76Bn trade deficit with the US is a hollow victory for Trump – yes, Brazil is indeed buying more from the US than it sells…
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South Korea Macro Brief: November 2025
The Bank of Korea (BOK) is now openly leaning toward a cut, with four of six board members backing easing in the next three months. The headline? The pivot has begun. But regulators are moving in the opposite direction on credit. Household debt is rising again, SME lending mandates are being enforced with fines and…
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China Macro Brief: November 2025
Trump-Jinping meeting on 30th October exposes the limits on US power - Trump capitulates. Tensions between the two superpowers defused … for the time being. Yet, this WILL flare up again in coming months and years - Trump/ USA will continue to overestimate the US’ power and influence over China, and China will not allow…
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India Macro Brief: November 2025
India is holding steady on the surface but shifting gear underneath. The RBI has left rates untouched, dialled up its growth forecast and eased its inflation view. But this isn’t coasting. It is calibration. Behind the stability lies a flurry of activity. We see tighter regulation, fintech restructuring, renewed FX pressure and emerging stress signals…
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South Africa Macro Brief: November 2025
Fresh September data show a bumper month for exports. Germany overtakes USA as RSA’s second largest export destination. As predicted, BRICS+ integration rising – 32 RSA companies are currently in Shanghai at the 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE). Fresh exports data show September to have been a record month, with RSA’s trade patterns showing…
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Kenya Macro Brief: November 2025
CBR cut again: Eighth consecutive rate reduction - down 25 bp to 9.25% on 7th October as inflation stays at 4.6%. Momentum building: PMI 52.5 (Oct). Fastest expansion since early 2022; output and new orders up sharply. Debt realignment deepens: Kenya converts around USD5 billion of Chinese loans into RMB, easing FX risk and strengthening…
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Romania Macro Brief: November 2025
Inflation hovers at 9.9%, benchmark rate held once again. Trade deficit widening, now at almost 10% of GDP. Overly optimistic forecasts for reducing the budget deficit fail to perceive the highly resilient roadblocks that will be put up by various state organs. Monetary Policy The Banca Nationala a Romaniei (BNR) continued to hold interest rates…