Category: Macro Briefs
-
Philippines Macro Brief: June 2025
US-Philippines trade negotiations continue, with the possibility of a deadline extension beyond 8th July now aired by both Trump and Bessent. The BSP cut interest rates again in June, having already made a 25bp cut in April. Inflation remains within the target range. Monetary Policy, Inflation & Interest Rates As mentioned in a prior report,…
-
Russia Macro Brief: June 2025
For the first time since July 2023 the Central Bank of Russia cut interest rates, but a strong ruble is a double edged sword for Russia – with negative effects on exports, and in particular oil, being a real concern. That said, with current events in the skies over Iran already influencing the price of…
-
Malaysia Macro Brief: June 2025
Malaysia’s macro landscape is shifting. The central bank is still holding the line on interest rates – but not without movement elsewhere. Liquidity has been loosened, downside risks are mounting and a dovish turn is starting to take shape. The Ringgit remains fragile, informal FX trading is quietly persisting and banks are still tightening cross-border…
-
Chile Macro Brief: June 2025
Chile enters the second half of the year with resilience intact but pressure mounting. Inflation has edged down but remains above target, and the Central Bank is staying cautious. The peso has softened, regulatory reforms are gathering pace and labour market fragilities persist. Under the surface, vulnerabilities in infrastructure and cyber resilience are coming into…
-
Vietnam Macro Brief: June 2025
A new decree to foster innovation within Vietnam’s banking and financial services, some developments with US trade negotiations, European sanctions against several Vietnamese companies trading with Russia – it has been a busy month for Vietnam. Policy & Regulatory Developments Effective from 1st July Decree No. 94/2025/ND-CP (or Decree 94) establishes a ‘Regulatory Sandbox’ for…
-
Argentina Macro Brief: June 2025
Inflation is falling, reserves are rising and Argentina is entering a new phase of reform. Rates are now market-set, capital controls remain relaxed and a quiet push is underway to lure hidden savings back onshore. If momentum holds, Milei may not just steady the ship – he might actually start to turn it around.… Read…
-
Indonesia Macro Brief: June 2025
Continued trade negotiations with the USA, now entering their second round next week in Washington, and generally with a very positive feel. A slight reduction in interest rates, with inflation staying well within target range. Further improvement in FATF compliance too. All in all, Indonesia feels increasingly positive. Tariffs At the beginning of June Indonesia’s…
-
China Macro Brief: June 2025
China Macro Brief: June 2025 US-China trade negotiations, and rhetoric, continue. Meanwhile, China has continued to improve her armoury, and bolster her economy in anticipation of a further breakdown in relations – and, having learned well from Russia’s recent experience, around sanctions in particular. This does introduce additional complexity and compliance burden for individuals and…
-
Brazil Macro Brief: June 2025
Brazil Macro Brief: June 2025 A visit by an IMF team in late May and early June provided a timely check-in on Brazil’s macro progress and its policy path ahead. Meanwhile, the new Economic Reciprocity Law has given the government fresh powers to hit back against unilateral foreign measures. That includes not only sanctions but…
-
Taiwan Macro Brief: June 2025
Taiwan’s macro story continues to be one of quiet resilience. The central bank remains on pause, inflation is cooling, and financial regulators are stepping back after a temporary tightening of market controls. Employment, meanwhile, is hitting fresh records - and that remains a core source of strength. Monetary Policy The Central Bank of the Republic…