Category: Macro Briefs
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Türkiye Macro Brief: November 2025
Key Points CBRT slows pace of cuts: trims the one-week repo rate by 100 bp to 39.5%, signalling a shift to data-dependent easing. Inflation pressures re-emerge: September CPI at 33.3% y/y. Anticipate market expectations rising toward 31.8% year-end. Lira hits new lows: trades around TRY 41.9/USD and TRY 48.9/EUR; depreciation continues with limited intervention.… Read…
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Malaysia: Macro Brief October 2025
Malaysia’s financial system is quietly shifting gears again. The focus this month wasn’t on rates or reserves. It was on structure, supervision and stability. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is tightening how credit is extended, how risks are priced and how financial data moves. Add in a handful of regulatory tweaks and consumer-facing changes and it’s…
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Russia Macro Brief: October 2025
Nails are now being whacked into the Russian coffin. UK, US and EU sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil are a powerful blow. Chinese concessions are easier than you might think – but look to wider oil market factors. Russia’s decline continues, now accelerating. Recent Chinese concessions not to purchase crude from Russian suppliers are less…
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Argentina Macro Brief: October 2025
Power gained, independence lost Milei’s midterm win gives him the votes to drive reforms but at the cost of deeper US financial dependence. US bailout doubled to USD 40 billion, turning liquidity support into a full geopolitical backstop. Short-term rates spiked above 80 % as the BCRA struggled with liquidity after scrapping LEFIs.… Read the…
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Vietnam Macro Brief: October 2025
September total exports data is highly encouraging - Vietnam is on course to smash 2024 figures. Given US tariffs went into effect on 7th August we await specific data on exports to the US for September to tell us the full story, but we’re optimistic that tariffs have only slightly dented US-bound exports.… Read the…
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Philippines Macro Brief: October 2025
Benchmark rate cut again, in line with our expectations. A new Digital Taxation Act brings foreign providers into line with domestic on VAT. GDP growth forecasts affected by weakening domestic demand, and dampening sentiment. Defying market expectations, but concurring with our predictions, the BSP cut the benchmark rate again on 9th October.… Read the rest
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Chile Macro Brief: October 2025
Chile is heading into the last quarter of 2025 with the brakes on and the pressure building. The Central Bank has held rates, headline inflation is softening and the Peso remains steady despite global volatility. But the story just beneath the surface is shifting. Core inflation is proving stubborn, employment is barely moving and the…
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Indonesia Macro Brief: October 2025
BI holds the benchmark rate at 4.75% after last month’s 0.25% cut. This caught the market by surprise, but not us – inflation was the key decider, as we forecast. IDR looks to be slowly regaining some strength as the economy now stabilizes. Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to hold the benchmark rate at 4.75% appears…
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Taiwan Macro Brief: October 2025
Taiwan remains stable but the landscape is shifting. The foundations are still holding but the strain is starting to show. Taiwan’s macro fundamentals remain solid. Rates are steady, inflation is cooling and employment is strong. But beneath that surface, the system is adjusting. The central bank is nudging housing policy, regulators are stepping up scrutiny…
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Brazil Macro Brief: October 2025
Brazil posts record trade results in September, set for a full-year $61Bn total trade surplus. The impact of US tariffs completely negated by considerable growths in non-US exports. EU-Mercosur agreement takes on renewed importance, further diminishing US power. Record trade results in September herald a trade surplus bounty by year end.… Read the rest