Category: Macro Briefs
-
Romania Macro Brief: September 2025
A significant inflationary spike, steady interest rates, and a very fragile coalition government – Romania watching is not for the faint of heart at present. Monetary Policy The Banca Nationala a Romaniei (BNR) continues to hold interest rates at 6.5% - one of the highest rates in Europe. No cuts are expected until mid-2026.… Read…
-
Türkiye Macro Brief: September 2025
Türkiye’s new medium-term programme stretches the disinflation path out to 2027, but still pitches a return to price stability as inevitable. The FX-protected deposit scheme is finally gone, the Lira is under pressure, and the central bank looks set to slow its easing cycle. Markets also welcomed the lifting of the short-selling ban, another step…
-
Philippines Macro Brief: August 2025
With US tariffs now agreed, however imbalanced the final outcome, a note of stability and predictability returns. Yes, it may well take several months for the full impact to become clear, but at present the headline figures are either stable or improving. We anticipate GDP growth that meets or exceeds 2024’s statistics, and at least…
-
Russia Macro Brief: August 2025
A raft of new sanctions were applied against Russia in August, and by a wide variety of nations and blocs, with more promised for September. The macro picture remains fragile, and several key indicators are beginning to emerge that signal deterioration. Monetary policy No further base rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR)…
-
Vietnam Macro Brief: August 2025
After Vietnam secured arguably the best US tariff deal amongst all ASEAN nations we now wait to measure the true economic impact, and contrast it with the impacts on markets competing with Vietnam to continue supplying US consumers. Inflation remains below target, employment slightly up, the dong continues to slide against the USD.… Read the…
-
Malaysia Macro Brief: August 2025
Malaysia’s pivot is now unmistakeable. After a year of standing still, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) has cut the OPR - and the ripple effects are spreading. Liquidity is looser, growth is softening and inflation remains muted. The Ringgit is still under pressure, black-market FX has crept back in and banks continue to cap overseas card…
-
Argentina Macro Brief: August 2025
Argentina is tightening again. The BCRA has drained liquidity with new reserve rules, sending short-term rates swinging wildly. Inflation edged higher, but the peso still holds inside its band. IMF cash has landed, BOPREAL bonds are gaining new uses, and the system is under strain—but the reform path remains intact. Monetary Policy The Central Bank…
-
Chile Macro Brief: August 2025
As summer comes to a close, Chile wraps up the season with a subtle but shifting economic narrative. The Central Bank has cut rates for the first time this year but stubborn inflation is slamming the brakes on further easing. Consumer prices unexpectedly increased in July and social equity issues surfaced amid new digital security…
-
Indonesia Macro Brief: August 2025
A rate cut that surprised many … but will it hold? An inflation jump that’s nothing we’d bat an eyelid at in most other markets we cover, but which has drawn our focus. An economic growth jump, with strong forecasts for the year – some are dubious, we are not. Tariffs & GDP Effects As…
-
China Macro Brief: August 2025
No deal yet between the US and China, but it does seem that both sides recognise that they do indeed need a deal and that neither side will emerge unscathed if relations deteriorate. Whether President Trump also understands this remains to be seen, however. Tariffs As we published our July brief US and Chinese officials,…