Category: Macro Briefs
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South Korea Macro Brief: June 2025
The past month has sharpened an already tricky policy dilemma. How to steer through weak domestic demand, rising external risks and still manage creeping debt stress without losing market confidence? The Bank of Korea (BOK) has now delivered a fourth rate cut, regulators are tightening the screws on household lending, and the won continues to…
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India Macro Brief: June 2025
As the new quarter kicks off, India’s macro narrative is walking a fine line. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is easing more confidently, liquidity is flush, and early monsoon forecasts look positive. But risks are circling - from creeping rupee pressure and patchy capital flows to new scrutiny on external financing and card spending.……
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Philippines Macro Brief: May 2025
Philippines Macro Brief: May 2025 US-Philippines trade negotiations are ongoing in Washington as we type, with the expectation tariffs will eventually fall into the 10-15% range. Meanwhile, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) Circular No. 1212 has introduced a sweeping range of changes set to affect FX derivatives, FX speculation, the quantification of FX exposure,…
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Russia Macro Brief: May 2025
This month, in the light of Putin’s 28th May demand that Western leaders pledge in writing to halt the eastward expansion of NATO, we are taking a step back from our usual macro terrain. Instead we are focusing on geopolitics - and specifically on an article we published almost exactly three years ago.… Read the…
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Malaysia Macro Brief: May 2025
Malaysia’s macro policy stance remains steady - but not still. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is holding rates firm, the Ringgit is under pressure and signs of financial tightening are quietly building. Black market rates have started creeping back in, retail card usage overseas is facing new restrictions and the central bank is clearly watching capital…
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Chile Macro Brief: May 2025
Chile enters mid-2025 with the brakes on and the pressure building. The Central Bank has kept rates on hold for a third straight meeting as inflation proves stickier to shift than had been hoped and the peso loses a bit of steam. Growth is slowing, the labour market remains patchy and the reform agenda is…
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Vietnam Macro Brief: May 2025
Some major regulatory developments this month that should tighten economic governance, create more room for foreign investment, sharpen statistical tools, and strengthen fuel supply resilience and pricing oversight. At the same time, negotiations over President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs rumble on, set against the backdrop of the US’s hefty trade deficit with Vietnam.… Read the…
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Argentina Macro Brief: May 2025
Stabilisation, liberalisation, and a renewed search for Argentina’s hidden ‘mattress dollars’. Argentina is now entering a new phase of reforms and rebuilding but a quieter campaign is also underway: coaxing billions in undeclared cash back into the formal economy. This could be transformative. Monetary Policy The Central Bank cut rates again in April - this…
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Indonesia Macro Brief: May 2025
Headlines have centred on Indonesia’s trade tensions with the US, particularly around the paused 32% ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on Indonesian exports. Those tensions have sparked capital outflows and weighed on the Rupiah. Still, perspective is key. Exports to the US make up just 2% of GDP, and beneath the noise, the macro backdrop remains broadly stable.……
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China Macro Brief: May 2025
China appears to have successfully called President Trump’s bluff over his “Liberation Day” tariffs, but negotiations are ongoing and there remains potential for further upset. Not content to simply hope for a favourable outcome from such negotiations the State Council announced a raft of monetary policy measures intended to stabilise and calm the markets.… Read…