Category: Russia

Nails are now being whacked into the Russian coffin. UK, US and EU sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil are a powerful blow. Chinese concessions are easier than you might think – but look to wider oil market factors. Russia’s decline continues, now accelerating. Recent Chinese concessions not to purchase crude from Russian suppliers are less…

The Russian giant is beginning to sway. At long last, after years of sanctions, the effects are finally beginning to be felt. The Russian economy is now punchdrunk, weak at the knees, and it is no longer a question of whether the giant will fall, but when. Monetary policy The Central Bank of Russia (CBR)…

A raft of new sanctions were applied against Russia in August, and by a wide variety of nations and blocs, with more promised for September. The macro picture remains fragile, and several key indicators are beginning to emerge that signal deterioration. Monetary policy No further base rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR)…

For the second time since July 2023 the Central Bank of Russia once again cut interest rates, this time by 200bp after inflation fell again. Additional sanctions have been applied by the EU and UK, with the US seemingly close to adding a highly punitive additional tariff rate to those nations that continue to import…

For the first time since July 2023 the Central Bank of Russia cut interest rates, but a strong ruble is a double edged sword for Russia – with negative effects on exports, and in particular oil, being a real concern. That said, with current events in the skies over Iran already influencing the price of…

This month, in the light of Putin’s 28th May demand that Western leaders pledge in writing to halt the eastward expansion of NATO, we are taking a step back from our usual macro terrain. Instead we are focusing on geopolitics - and specifically on an article we published almost exactly three years ago.… Read the…

Plenty is being said elsewhere about the war in Ukraine, the USA’s involvement — or lack thereof — in peace negotiations, and the new US-Ukraine minerals agreements. Here, we focus instead on Russia’s economic landscape: some of it war-linked, some less so. A fresh wave of UK sanctions, the policy rate held at 21% again…