Category: Turkey

Türkiye enters December juggling stability, sentiment and policy discipline. The Central Bank (CBRT) has eased again but not recklessly. Inflation is softening but not convincingly enough to shift expectations, and capital controls remain the scaffolding holding the system together. What’s changing is the architecture: selective loosenings for state-linked corporates, tighter informal guidance for everyone else,…

Key Points CBRT slows pace of cuts: trims the one-week repo rate by 100 bp to 39.5%, signalling a shift to data-dependent easing. Inflation pressures re-emerge: September CPI at 33.3% y/y. Anticipate market expectations rising toward 31.8% year-end. Lira hits new lows: trades around TRY 41.9/USD and TRY 48.9/EUR; depreciation continues with limited intervention.… Read…

At a Glance CBRT cut another 250bp to 40.5%, defying expectations as September inflation jumped to 33.3%. The Lira hit fresh lows (EUR/TRY 48.9), even as FX reserves climbed to a record USD 176 bn and Ankara sealed a USD 4.9 bn swap line with the UAE.Unemployment ticked up to 8.5%, showing the soft-landing story…

Türkiye’s new medium-term programme stretches the disinflation path out to 2027, but still pitches a return to price stability as inevitable. The FX-protected deposit scheme is finally gone, the Lira is under pressure, and the central bank looks set to slow its easing cycle. Markets also welcomed the lifting of the short-selling ban, another step…

Türkiye has leaned back into stimulus this month, with the central bank delivering a bigger than expected rate cut and edging closer to scrapping its costly FX-protected deposit scheme. Inflation is slowing, the Lira has held broadly steady and Ankara is talking up a coordinated policy push to anchor the disinflation path.… Read the rest