December 2024

Iran’s regional standing hit by al-Assad’s fall. The impact on Iran of the Syrian regime’s fall is highly significant. Once the cornerstone of Iran’s influential “Axis of Resistance” against Israel and the US Syria served as a critical hub for Iranian support to Hezbollah in Lebanon, facilitating the transfer of weapons, logistical backing, and benefiting from smuggling and illicit narcotics networks. The Assad regime’s purchase of tens of billions of dollars in Iranian oil provided a crucial economic lifeline amid Western sanctions. Syria also served as a useful buffer: 70,000 square miles of friendly territory between it and Israel, reducing Tehran’s vulnerability to Israeli strikes on its nuclear program or other strategic assets. The emergence of a new government led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a group with longstanding hostility toward Iran and Hezbollah, has erased this advantage. Although HTS is unlikely to align with Israel, its enmity towards Tehran and Hezbollah makes it an unreliable deterrent against Israeli aggression. The IDF’s proactive destruction of military assets left by the Assad regime further diminishes the utility of Syria as a strategic ally for Iran. When combined with Israel’s recent dismantling of Iran’s primary regional proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, Iran’s influence in the region has diminished to its lowest point in years.
Regime rattled. This is reflected in official reaction in Tehran: in a speech following HTS’s taking of Damascus, Khamenei accused the United States and Israel of orchestrating Assad’s overthrow. Uncharacteristically, state television provided only limited coverage of his remarks, reflecting the gravity of the situation. Iranian authorities have intensified censorship, warning media outlets and activists to avoid commentary on Assad’s ouster that might jeopardize domestic security. The Attorney General’s Office issued a statement cautioning media outlets and online activists to avoid topics that “disrupt the psychological security of society.” At least eight journalists, commentators, and activists have reportedly been indicted for their online remarks about the issue. It is difficult now to reconcile the loss of Syria with the previous official narratives of Iranian regional strength.
Qods Force taking heat from hardliners. Unease at the news is manifesting in other ways. For over a decade, the IRGC and foreign militias under its command, such as the Fatemiyoun and Zeynabiyoun brigades, were heavily involved in defending Assad during Syria’s civil war. Ultra-hardliners are now directing rare criticism at the IRGC and, in particular,  Qods Force commander Esmail Qaani. This backlash has surfaced in closed online platforms like Eitaa and Telegram, where individuals referring to themselves as “arzeshi” (defenders of the Islamic Republic’s values) have voiced frustration. Typically, users are questioning the inaction of the Qods Force: “Why doesn’t anyone say anything? Why were Iran Air’s flights to Damascus halted? Why was the Lebanese border with Syria blocked? Why weren’t we allowed to go and fight?” Others are directly critical of Qaani: “Hezbollah leaders were martyred, the Axis of Resistance retreated from Syria, yet the Qods Force commander has remained silent.”  Qaani’s absence from a closed Parliamentary meeting with IRGC head  General Hossein Salami has fuelled rumours that he may have fallen out of favour with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Qaani has rarely been seen in public since October, following severe setbacks for Hezbollah, including the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, alongside a senior Qods Force commander. His last appearance was on 7^th December at a wake at Khamenei’s residence, where he appeared in civilian attire instead of military uniform.
Effect on nuclear diplomacy. Iran’s weakened position will compel it to focus on regime survival and complicates prospects for nuclear diplomacy in 2025. Diminished ability to project conventional power is increasing reliance on its nuclear program as a critical element of deterrence. While Iran is unlikely to pursue nuclear weapon development in the immediate future, it has demonstrated growing openness to altering its nuclear doctrine to address external threats. Iranian officials have openly discussed revising the country’s nuclear stance to permit weaponization if existentially threatened, signalling a significant shift in strategic thinking. Khamenei and Pezeshkian will likely continue to prioritize diplomacy with the US to secure sanctions relief, aiming to stabilize Iran’s economy and bolster regime credibility amid rising public discontent and looming leadership uncertainties. Without economic improvement or diplomatic breakthroughs, the risks of internal instability—especially in marginalized regions—will grow significantly.
Musk’s Iranian meeting. Trump ally Elon Musk met with Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, on 11^th November in New York. Former special representative for Iran under Donald Trump, Elliott Abrams publicly condemned the meeting, describing it as ‘highly inadvisable’. Abrams argued that the Iranian side was likely far better prepared for such an encounter, and that it sends a signal to the Iranians that Trump is desperate to negotiate. During a Time magazine interview President-elect Trump claimed no knowledge of the meeting but left open the possibility of a conflict with Iran. “My terms are very easy. They can’t have nuclear weapons,” he said, adding that he would like to see Iran become “a very successful country.”
Enhanced Oversight at Fordow Nuclear Site. Iran agreed to stricter monitoring measures at its Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) following a significant escalation in uranium enrichment nearing weapons-grade levels. The IAEA disclosed in a confidential report to member states that Iran has approved “increased frequency and intensity” of safeguards at the site. This reverses a 2023 decision that barred one-third of the agency’s inspectors, citing alleged political bias. New measures include more frequent inspections at Fordow and additional inspectors, though visits will not occur daily. Although Iran’s agreement represents a shift from its previous position, Tehran may use this agreement as leverage in future negotiations.
Bibi’s message to Iranians. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu suggested that the collapse of Iran’s Islamic regime might be imminent in a video message directed at the Iranian people. Referencing the slogan used by 2022 protesters against mandatory Islamic veiling, Netanyahu said that “Woman, Life, Freedom is the future of Iran…” expressing confidence that change in Iran would come “…a lot sooner than people think.” “Your oppressors spent over $30 billion supporting Assad in Syria, and after just 11 days of fighting, his regime collapsed into dust,” he said. “Imagine the roads, schools, and hospitals that could have been built with the tens of billions wasted on terrorists who keep losing.” Netanyahu’s latest comments are part of a broader effort to appeal directly to the Iranian population and capitalize on their dissatisfaction with the regime’s domestic and foreign policies.