February 2025

February 2025

The Islamic Republic celebrates its 46th anniversary with public shows of anger against the revolutionary regime and economic deterioration undermining the republic’s legitimacy. Trump has his eyes on squeezing Iranian oil, aimed as exacerbating these woes.

Political

Public discontent. On February 9th during the 46th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, protestors in several Iranian cities—including Tehran, Karaj, Mashhad, Arak, and Kermanshah—voiced strong opposition to the Islamic Republic. Instead of the usual chants of “Allahu Akbar,” demonstrators shouted slogans like “Death to the Islamic Republic,” “Death to the Dictator,” and “Death to Khamenei the Murderer.” Videos from various neighbourhoods captured the widespread discontent across different social groups, with protestors condemning the regime’s violent history and its clerical establishment. Meanwhile protests over the death of a 19-year-old University of Tehran student continue to intensify amid a heavy security presence on campus. The student, Amir Mohammad Khaleghi, was fatally attacked near a dormitory, sparking anger among students who accuse university officials of neglecting campus safety. Demonstrators staged sit-ins and chanted slogans blaming the government and security forces for years of inaction and unsafe conditions, with some even directing their anger at the IRGC and the Islamic Republic. Although several students were briefly arrested during the protests, nationwide solidarity has grown as students from other universities and prominent figures like exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi and Nobel laureate Narges Mohammadi have voiced support. In response, university authorities have announced plans to install surveillance cameras and security kiosks, and government officials have called for an investigation into the incident, all occurring amid a broader backdrop of economic crisis and political tension in Iran.
Threats to nuclear sites. President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that if enemies manage to destroy 100 of Iran’s nuclear sites, the nation’s youth and scientists would rebuild 1,000 more, underscoring the resilience of the country’s nuclear program. His comments came amid reports of potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and heightened tensions between Iran and Israel. The president emphasized that while buildings could be targeted, the expertise and determination of Iran’s scientists could not be erased. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump hinted at preferring diplomatic solutions over military strikes to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and Iran’s air force reiterated that the country’s doctrine remains defensive, though it would retaliate forcefully against any enemy attack.
Corruption perception index. Iran has fallen to its lowest corruption ranking yet, placing 151st out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index with a score of 23 out of 100. This score, derived from 13 different surveys by various institutions, reflects widespread issues such as misuse of public power, bribery, and lack of accountability. Iran’s performance is lower than Iraq’s but slightly better than Lebanon’s, while countries like South Sudan, Somalia, and Venezuela scored the lowest. Additionally, a 2023 World Bank report ranked Iran among the worst globally in governance, especially in terms of political participation, free expression, and media freedom.
Air quality. Tehran now suffers from nearly constant toxic air, with fewer than ten days of clean air recorded last year. While air pollution in Tehran isn’t new, its severity has escalated due to factors such as low-quality gasoline, reliance on poor-quality fuel oil (‘mazut’) for power, and chronic shortages of refined gas—exacerbated by inefficiencies and sanctions. Outdated public transport forces many to rely on inefficient, unsafe vehicles, which not only contribute to severe air pollution but also result in thousands of traffic fatalities annually. The health impacts are dire, especially for vulnerable groups like children and the elderly, prompting some residents to leave the city despite the difficulties of relocating. Similar issues plague other cities like Isfahan, where environmental degradation, including the drying of the Zayandeh Roud river and surrounding heavy industry, has made urban living nearly unbearable.
Energy crisis. Former Vice President Es’haq Jahangiri has demanded that officials responsible for Iran’s energy crisis be dismissed, arguing that the widespread power outages this winter could have been prevented even without the nation’s oil and gas resources. Speaking at the Energy Imbalance and Solutions Congress, Jahangiri criticized the lack of emergency measures—such as importing diesel to keep power plants running—which he believes would have avoided the current situation and public humiliation. He warned that ongoing mismanagement could lead to even more severe disruptions in the future. The energy crisis has sparked public anger and sporadic protests across the country, with demonstrators in towns like Dehdasht and at the University of Tehran, as well as in cities including Shiraz, Yazd, and Tehran, voicing their frustration over power outages and rising living costs. Protesters have increasingly targeted Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, calling for his removal amid a broader critique of the government’s failure to manage the crisis. These power shortages, which have led to school and government office closures, are attributed to high gas consumption and limited supplies, despite Iran holding the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves—a resource that is underproduced due to outdated technology and a lack of investment.
Hostage diplomacy. The family of two British nationals, Craig and Lindsay Foreman, detained in Iran during a round-the-world motorbike trip, has expressed deep concern and is working with authorities to secure their safe return. Detained in Kerman on unspecified security charges, the couple had planned a brief five-day visit as part of their journey toward Australia, with Lindsay also conducting a research project on what constitutes a good life. The British Foreign Office confirmed the detentions, and British Ambassador Hugo Shorter met with them at the local prosecutor’s office.
Beirut flight ban. Lebanon has barred Iranian airlines Mahan Air and Iran Air from flying to Beirut following allegations by Israel that Iran’s IRGC Quds Force is using civilian flights to smuggle money to Hezbollah via Beirut International Airport. Israel claims that funds meant for arming Hezbollah and launching attacks against Israel have been covertly transferred using these flights. In response, Lebanese authorities have also begun inspecting incoming flights from Iraq to prevent further transfers. The decision has sparked protests by Hezbollah supporters at Beirut Airport and comes amid ongoing tensions between Israel and Lebanon over ceasefire violations and mutual accusations of military breaches.

Economic

Stranded oil. US sanctions on Iran and Russia have led to oil shipments being stranded at sea, as buyers are deterred by measures targeting tankers and companies that facilitate their oil trade. Since last October, these sanctions—reinforced by President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign aiming to drive Iran’s oil sales to zero—have significantly hindered exports, which are a key revenue source for both nations. Iranian oil now largely remains in floating storage, reaching over 25 million barrels, with a notable increase of around 20 million barrels since the start of 2025. Additionally, a recent ban by the Shandong Port Group on US-sanctioned tankers has cut off Iran’s access to major Chinese oil terminals. Although China handles 95% of Iran’s oil exports, the oil is typically blended with other crude by small independent refineries to avoid detection under US sanctions.
Exported oil. China’s imports of Iranian oil fell by more than half in January after the Chinese government banned sanctioned tankers from entering Shandong port, its largest terminal for Iranian crude. This drop follows months of declining export revenues that began when US sanctions targeted dozens of tankers carrying Iranian oil after Iran’s missile attack on Israel last October. As a result, Iranian oil deliveries to China fell from over 1.8 million barrels per day in October to below 850,000 barrels per day in January, while Iran’s floating oil reserves surged to 35 million barrels. The combination of higher transportation costs due to sanctions and other factors has driven Iran’s monthly oil export revenue down sharply, from $3.83 billion earlier in the fiscal year to just $1.75 billion in recent months. Additionally, halted exports to Syria and a steep devaluation of the Iranian rial have compounded the revenue decline. Meanwhile, sanctions on Russian tankers have increased the cost of chartering non-sanctioned vessels, leading some operators to shift from Iranian to Russian oil shipments, further straining Iran’s access to tanker capacity.
Future oil. US President Donald Trump is aiming to reduce Iranian oil exports to about 100,000 barrels per day—roughly 10% of the current level of 1.5 million barrels per day—to further weaken Iran’s already fragile economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that lowering exports to levels seen at the end of Trump’s first term, when the “maximum pressure” campaign drove exports as low as 200,000 barrels per day, would severely strain Iran due to its high inflation and massive budget deficit. Bessent also criticized purchases by China and India, arguing that revenues from oil sales fund Iran’s terrorist activities. This push comes amid intensified US sanctions on Iranian and Russian tankers and related entities, which are increasingly hampering oil exports—the main revenue source for both nations.

Conclusion

Another period of domestic unrest and external pressure, as Iran grapples with public dissent and worsening sanctions. The cumulative impact of these challenges—from protests and energy crises to nuclear threats and economic instability—places the regime under mounting strain, and underscores signals that the next 6 months will prove decisive for Iran’s future.

Published 17th February 2025