HOW WE THINK

Five Predictions for 2026 That Matter

2026 will not be defined by a single shock or turning point. Instead it will be by the cumulative impact of policy uncertainty, geopolitical friction and capital repositioning. The old anchors are weakening and markets will be forced to discriminate more aggressively. These are the five calls that will matter most. 1)… Read more…
When Inflation Stops Mattering: The New Geography of Strategic Capital

Investors aren’t supposed to behave like this. Conventional wisdom says foreign investors will run from high inflation. In theory no one should be sending long term capital to countries where 30% price growth wipes out real returns before you’ve even taken off your jacket. Yet in 2025, as one analyst put it,… Read more…
Why Washington Stepped In: Inside the $40 Billion Bailout

We’ve just seen the biggest US intervention in a foreign market in years and it happened in the middle of a government shutdown. Argentina didn’t just get a bailout. It got a guardian. The Mechanics: How the Money Moved Without Congress Officially, this isn’t a bailout. Washington calls it a currency-swap arrangement… Read more…
Egypt’s Debt Story: A Recovery Built on Fragile Ground

The headlines are comforting. Egypt’s debt on track to hit lowest level since 2016 by 2030, says the IMF. Ahram Online dutifully reported it while Cairo’s officials echoed the optimism. But if you look behind the tidy slope of those projections you will see there is a more complicated reality. It is… Read more…
Shifting Trade Winds

Since WW2 the global trade and financial system has primarily favoured the USA. Akin to all empires of old, the US had, and still has, a crucial role in ensuring the system’s stability, delivering continued US prosperity and hegemonic power. President Trump, and his acolytes, do not grasp the above, and through… Read more…
Reactors and Realignment: What Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Move Really Signals

Kazakhstan is pressing ahead with its first civilian nuclear plant – but this isn’t just about power grids or carbon targets. It is about leverage. And the game around it is changing fast. The IAEA has thrown its weight behind the project, offering full support from start to finish. On paper, Astana… Read more…
Tariff Diplomacy and the Illusion of Surpluses

For decades the United States was the world’s great consumer, importing more than it sold, and building trade deficits around the planet. Now, in pockets of the emerging and frontier world, Washington is suddenly chalking up trade surpluses. At first glance, this looks like an American comeback. In reality, it is an… Read more…
Why the Biggest NATO Summit Story Flew Under the Radar

Forget the viral clips. The real story out of the NATO Summit wasn’t Trump’s mood swings or Zelenskyy’s charm offensive. It was a quiet yet seismic financial shift – one that fundamentally rewires how the West funds Ukraine’s war effort. For the first time, NATO has agreed that aid to Ukraine can… Read more…
Is the USA About to Join Israel Against Iran?

A major shift is underway. Where it leads is still unclear – but all signs point towards deeper US involvement in Israel’s military campaign against Iran. The pre-conditions are largely in place, both politically and operationally, and the logic of escalation is closing fast. This piece breaks down the drivers, risks and… Read more…
Türkiye: Who is İmamoğlu and Why Does He Matter?

Ekrem İmamoğlu is one of the most formidable political threats to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rule. In this article we delve into his significance for Türkiye, and why his recent arrest has caused such a vociferous reaction across the country. If you have not already read our article Türkiye Primer: Democracy to… Read more…
Türkiye Primer: Democracy to Autocracy

President Erdoğan has made significant shifts in Turkish politics over his more than two decades in power, transitioning Turkey from a parliamentary democracy to an executive presidency all while consolidating control over key institutions. Here are some of the most critical changes and how he did it. In 2017, Erdoğan pushed for… Read more…
So Much For “Deep and Thoughtful” – Vance’s Signal Debacle

The recent revelation by The Atlantic’s editor, Jeffrey Goldberg, that he was inadvertently included in a Signal chat group discussing imminent US airstrikes on Yemen is nothing short of astonishing. This scandal exposes a troubling mix of incompetence, naiveté and callous disregard for both military realities and global alliances. The implications of… Read more…