India Macro Brief: May 2025

India Macro Brief: May 2025

India’s financial landscape remained in motion throughout all of April. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) continued to take centre stage. Fresh rate cuts, liquidity injections and regulatory shifts also signalled a clear intent: anchor financial stability, stimulate credit and shore up investor confidence amid rising external and geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, the rupee has come under pressure, capital inflows are shifting, and new regulatory interventions are on the table. The outlook remains constructive – but layered with caution.
General.
The RBI has stayed active. On 9th April, it cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.00% – the second reduction in 2025. The move is part of a broader strategy to offset global trade headwinds and revive domestic investment. Crucially, it came alongside a reaffirmed GDP forecast of 6.5% for FY26 and inflation anchored at 4%, assuming a normal monsoon. We now anticipate a cumulative 50 to 75 basis points of additional easing by year-end – providing ...

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