• RBI holds rates at 5.50% but upgrades FY26 GDP to 6.8% and cuts inflation forecast to 2.6% — policy space remains open.
• Credit risk rules shift as RBI releases draft Expected Credit Loss (ECL) framework and new capital charge norms.
• CBDC pilots expand with tokenised CDs in wholesale markets and a new sandbox for retail digital rupee use cases.
• INR under pressure near 88.32 toUSD; GIFT City FX settlement pilot launched to anchor rupee and modernise cross-border flows.
The macro baseline is holding but India’s financial architecture is being quietly redrawn. Behind the scenes, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is preparing the banking sector for stricter credit rules, expanding its digital footprint through tokenised instruments and CBDC pilots and tightening oversight of payments infrastructure. Meanwhile, the Rupee remains under pressure, joblessness is creeping up and consumer investment sentiment is beginning to show signs of fatigue. This month’s story is one of quiet stress t...
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