The first round of the presidential election took place on 28th June, with a further round of voting now set for 5th July after no candidate won 50% of the vote. The second round will see surprise reformist Masoud Pezeshkian compete against arch hardliner Saeed Jalili; they polled 43% and 39% respectively. The Guardian Council had approved six candidates this month to run in Round One – its filter ensuring the election was a battle mainly among hardline figures, with the decision-making process increasingly controlled by conservative stakeholders. They aim to secure a successor to Khamenei that aligns with the Ayatollah’s ideology. This time a high turnout had become more important for the regime than who wins; unfortunately for the regime, a new all-time low of 40% of the electorate voted, underscoring the disenchantment most Iranians feel.
Hardliners Divided.Following the 19th May helicopter crash killing President Ebrahim Raisi, the Iranian establishment has been gearing up to elect a replacement. The first stage in the process is the Guardian Council assessing and approving candidates to run. The Council approved six candidates, predominantly hardliners and conservatives, but with one reformist in the mix. The official list included Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the conservative speaker of the Majilis, former mayor of Tehran and member of the IRGC; Saeed Jalili, a hardliner and former chief nuclear negotiator; Alireza Zakani, another hardliner and the current mayor of Tehran; Mostafa Pourmohammadi, a former minister and the only cleric; Amirhossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, Raisi’s vice president; and Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist, former surgeon, and health minister under reformist President Khatami in the early 2000s. Notably, the Guardian Council disqualified two prominent candidates, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a former hardliner turned government critic, and Ali Larijani, a moderate who supported the JCPOA; both seen as potential threats to conservative dominance.
Compared to the 2021 election, which was carefully managed by authorities to ensure the victory of hardliner Ebrahim Raisi, the election to replace him featured a greater degree of uncertainty, as conservatives have not consolidated their support behind a single figure. Instead, two prominent conservative figures – Qalibaf, a pragmatic conservative, and arch-hardliner Jalili – competed. Despite pressure from within the regime, neither dropped out to allow conservatives to form a united front against reformist Pezeshkian.
Reformist. With only a day to go until polling Ghazizadeh Hashemi and Alireza Zakari announced their withdrawals, expressing hope that others would do likewise, consolidating conservative support behind a single candidatee. Zakani said he with withdrew to “block the formation of of a third administration” of former President Hassan Rouhani, a reference to Pezeshkian.
With endorsements from major reformist figures, including former presidents Rouhani and Mohammed Khatami, Pezeshkian gained momentum throughout June, coming out on top in Round One with 43% of the vote. His campaign centres around themes of a return to the JCPOA as an economic necessity, and liberalising restrictions on daily life for Iranians, particularly women.
Ghalibaf and Jalili topped pre-election polls among conservatives. Several mediation attempts were made to ensure the withdrawal of one or other, aiming for a first-round victory against the reformist Pezeshkian.
Ghalibaf, finishing third, backed Jalili, making a conservative victory in the second round still the most likely outcome, particularly given Pezeshkian’s underwhelming campaign performance. But conservatives will now fear that Pezeshkian might mobilize voters who would otherwise abstain, making the outcome unpredictable. Ghalibaf has the implicit support of the Revolutionary Guards.
Western Sanctions Bolstered.The USsanctioned nearly 50 entities and individuals that it claims constitute multiple branches of a sprawling shadow banking network used by Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL) and IRGC to gain illicit access to the international financial system, and process the equivalent of billions of dollars since 2020. MODAFL and the IRGC engage in several commercial revenue-generating activities, most notably the sale of Iranian oil and petrochemicals. Meanwhile the Canadian government designated the IRGC as a terrorist entity, causing that country’s financial institutions to immediately freeze assets belonging to the IRGC. The Canadian government stated that this listing “sends a strong message that Canada will use all tools at its disposal to combat the terrorist activity of the IRGC, conducted both unilaterally and in association with listed terrorist entities such as Hezbollah and Hamas.”
Pharma Scandal.Acting president, Mohammad Mokhber, called for an urgent investigation into reports of adverse effects from a contaminated dialysis solution. Iranian state media reported Mokhber’s call for an inquiry by the anti-corruption coordination head after peritoneal dialysis solutions from Samen Pharmaceutical Company, linked to the US-sanctioned Astan Quds Razavi, were contaminated with aluminium. The contaminated solution, used in the treatment of kidney failure, has poisoned several dialysis patients, causing fatalities.
Rial.The Iranian rial weakened to end the month at 608,500 IRR on the black market.
Cost of Sanctions. Hossein Selahvarzi, former head of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce, stated that sanctions have caused roughly $1.2 trillion in damage to the Iranian economy over the past 12 years. Selahvarzi noted that the issue of sanctions has been largely overlooked during the current election campaign. Without citing sources, he estimated that the sanctions have resulted in a loss of about $14,000 per capita income for each Iranian over the 12-year period, equating to an average annual loss of $1,202 per person.
Energy Crisis. Iran is facing a severe energy deficit crisis, worsened by the summer heat and the government’s failure to meet natural gas and electricity production targets. The Deputy Minister of Industry, Mines and Trade announced that electricity supply to industry will be halved over the summer. Steel manufacturing, needing 5,500 MW, will receive only 2,400 to 3,800 MW, while cement production, which requires 1,000 MW, will get just 500 to 650 MW. The minister’s letter contained an error, confusing Watt hour with Watt, reflecting a lack of expertise among officials, and was widely mocked on social media.
Regional. An airstrike hit a building used by Iranian-backed militias in Albu Kamal, a border town in Syria near Iraq, with local reports suggesting that a convoy transporting weapons for Hezbollah was also targeted. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that three pro-Iran Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigade militiamen were killed. The attack was likely carried out by Israel, which frequently targets Iranian-backed militias along the border. Although the US denied involvement, militias accused the US of being responsible. Following this incident, a rare drone attack targeted the US outpost of al-Tanf along the Syria-Jordan border. This attack is notable as Iranian-linked attacks on US bases in Syria and Iraq had largely ceased since the deaths of several American soldiers in a drone attack on Tower 22, an outpost near al-Tanf in Jordan.
Prison Fire Sentences. Iran’s regime sentenced those accused in the 2022 Evin Prison fire case to a combined total of 265 years in prison and over 5,000 lashes. The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported on 24th June that Branch 1148 of the Tehran Criminal Court sentenced 40 defendants to “imprisonment, lashes, and blood money.” The fire at Evin Prison occurred amid heightened tensions during the nationwide protests of 2022. Gunfire and explosions were reported during the incident, leading to several injuries and fatalities among prisoners.
Pezeshkian could not pull off a Rouhani-style surprise majority in the first round on 28th June (he beat both Jalili and Qalibaf in 2013), but his victory is still a surprise and will have conservatives rattled. With the conservative bloc consolidated around Jalili, Pezeshkian now has five days to mobilize a reluctant electorate, many of whom are loathe to give the regime any tinge of legitimacy by actually using their vote. As one of Pezeshkian’s campaign managers, said: “Our rival is not the hardline candidates but voter abstention.” If his campaign can get out the votes, and he does win a surprise victory, sadly little will change – voters know this, another disincentive to turn out. A President Pezeshkian would be stymied by the conservatives who dominate the other regime institutions, and the presidency marginalised, preventing him from effecting the reform that the Iranian economy, polity and people need.