Kenya is in pause mode. The rate cut cycle is on hold, inflation has ticked higher but remains within target, and the August bounce in business activity already looks short-lived. It is a month defined less by fresh decisions than by the weight of what’s already in motion.
Monetary Policy.
The CBR holds at 9.50% following the seventh consecutive cut in August. Inflation edged up again to 4.53% in August from 4.15% in July, but still sits comfortably inside the 2.5–7.5% band. The next MPC decision is due in October, leaving September as a waiting game. Last month we noted not just the headline cut, but also the CBK’s quiet pressure on banks to pass easing through — that transmission remains the key test.
Private Sector.
The relief rally was brief. After the PMI climbed to 49.4 in August — the softest contraction in three months — it slipped back below 50 in September, pointing to renewed contraction. Firms continued hiring for a seventh straight month, but demand has not followed throug...
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