Below you will find a selection of reports that we provide to existing clients. Please note that, as with everything we do, these are bespoke to those clients. The intelligence products that you receive could therefore look very different – we will tailor exactly to your needs.
- Russia Macro Brief: December 2025
Zelenskyy is working his magic – the new US-Ukrainian 20-point peace plan is vastly more sensible than the prior US 28-point plan and European re-work. There are clear efforts to address the crucial, central impasse for both sides – a Ukrainian security guarantee against Russian aggression, and a Russian security guarantee against NATO encroachment. However,… Read more: Russia Macro Brief: December 2025 - Vietnam Macro Brief: December 2025
Mid-December trade data showed total imports-exports hit $883.72Bn, with full-year figures likely to hit $920Bn, 16.9% growth YoY. Despite tariffs the US trade deficit with Vietnam continues to grow, with November data showing $121.6Bn, up 27.5% versus the same 11-month period in 2024. CPI only creeping upwards whilst core inflation creeps downwards, headline policy rate… Read more: Vietnam Macro Brief: December 2025 - Argentina Macro Brief: December 2025
Argentina: December 2025 December was not about headlines. It was about admission. The Central Bank finally acknowledged what markets had been signalling for months: the FX anchor was no longer fit for purpose. Inflation was easing, unemployment was improving and reserves were holding – but the framework holding them together was under strain. December was… Read more: Argentina Macro Brief: December 2025 - Philippines Macro Brief: December 2025
Inflation falls back to 1.5%, still beneath the 2-4% target band. As predicted, the central bank cut the key rate by 0.25%. Trade deficit is narrowing, but don’t judge too soon. Mixed news this month; positive in some areas, negative in others. We’re neither especially bearish, nor bullish – but it is clear that the… Read more: Philippines Macro Brief: December 2025 - Chile Macro Brief: December 2025
Chile Macro Brief: December 2025 December marked a decisive turning point for Chile. Politically, the 14th December runoff ended months of uncertainty with a clear rightward shift under José Antonio Kast. Monetarily, the Central Bank pivoted from caution to action, cutting rates as inflation fell faster than expected. On the surface, it was a clean… Read more: Chile Macro Brief: December 2025 - Indonesia Macro Brief: December 2025
Trade surplus continues its decline, with October’s figures failing to hit forecasts. Bank Indonesia (BI) held the benchmark rate once again, as we predicted – and we’re glad to see it. Whilst BI may have steadied the ship inflation-wise, we’re concerned that external forces that are eroding the trade surplus will have deeper negative effects… Read more: Indonesia Macro Brief: December 2025 - Taiwan Macro Brief: December 2025
Taiwan ends the year with policies anchored, inflation low and the exchange rate under control. But listen closely, and you will hear that the tone has sharpened. The Central Bank isn’t blinking, but it is watching the currency like a hawk. Regulatory priorities are shifting again – this time from fire fighting to pre-emption. Retail… Read more: Taiwan Macro Brief: December 2025 - South Korea Macro Brief: December 2025
The Bank of Korea (BOK) is inching closer to its first rate cut, but it’s being held back by sticky inflation, currency pressure and a still-hot credit environment. The signal has shifted. Easing is no longer a question of “if”, but “how fast” and “under what guardrails”. While the Monetary Policy Board remains split, the… Read more: South Korea Macro Brief: December 2025 - Brazil Macro Brief: December 2025
Another good month of exports, but imports are rising, narrowing the trade surplus. Selic rate held at 15%, inflation continues to fall … but very gently. Any base rate reduction is only likely to be in small, cautious increments. US Supreme Court is currently deliberating over the legality of Trump’s tariffs, and a decision against… Read more: Brazil Macro Brief: December 2025 - South Africa Macro Brief: December 2025
October’s trade surplus narrows on the back of a 7.2% jump in imports, despite increased exports. 0.25% cut to the repo rate, based on encouraging inflation data. A new EU trade agreement set to diversify EU supply chains and secure much needed investment into RSA infrastructure. Trade After RSA’s September trade surplus hit a 2.5… Read more: South Africa Macro Brief: December 2025 - India Macro Brief: December 2025
India has cut rates but it hasn’t cut corners. The RBI lowered the repo rate to 5.25% in December, unveiled fresh liquidity support and reaffirmed its neutral stance. But this isn’t loose policy. It is strategic calibration. At the same time, the Rupee broke through the 90 to USD barrier for the first time, regulatory… Read more: India Macro Brief: December 2025 - China Macro Brief: December 2025
After Trump’s capitulation on 30th October, China has (temporarily) rolled back its retaliatory measures. Exports and trade surplus continue to rise, despite a 30% drop off in US bound goods. Both core inflation and CPI remain low, albeit perhaps too low. Having successfully stared down President Trump and his nonsensical trade war, President Xi Jinping… Read more: China Macro Brief: December 2025 - Kenya Macro Brief: December 2025
Kenya ends the year in better shape than it began it. Activity is accelerating, inflation has edged lower and the system has more breathing room on the external side. Policy remains loose, liquidity is behaving and the Shilling is holding its line. The tone has shifted from stabilisation to something closer to controlled momentum. Monetary… Read more: Kenya Macro Brief: December 2025 - Romania Macro Brief: December 2025
Inflation dips almost imperceptibly to 9.8%, benchmark rate held once again. Central Bank finally revises year-end inflation forecast significantly upward. Trade deficit narrowing – slowly. September 2025 data put it at USD2.9Bn. Monetary Policy At the 12th November meeting the Central Bank Banca Nationala a Romaniei (BNR) voted unanimously to hold interest rates at 6.50%,… Read more: Romania Macro Brief: December 2025 - Türkiye Macro Brief: December 2025
Türkiye enters December juggling stability, sentiment and policy discipline. The Central Bank (CBRT) has eased again but not recklessly. Inflation is softening but not convincingly enough to shift expectations, and capital controls remain the scaffolding holding the system together. What’s changing is the architecture: selective loosenings for state-linked corporates, tighter informal guidance for everyone else,… Read more: Türkiye Macro Brief: December 2025 - Russia Macro Brief: November 2025
The timing of current peace negotiations is nonsensical – the Rosneft/ Lukoil sanctions need more time to have real effect on Russia. The initial US 28-point peace plan was appalling, and Europe’s rework little better – both fail to address the crucial, central impasse for both sides. Trump’s thirst for a quick peace will, at… Read more: Russia Macro Brief: November 2025
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