US-Nigeria relations have taken a sharp hit with Trump back in the White House. Visa restrictions and aid cuts are sending a clear message that things are shifting – and Nigeria is feeling it, especially in healthcare where US funding was critical. Economically, a slight dip in inflation isn’t fooling anyone. High interest rates and over-reliance on oil still weigh heavily. We do see a glimmer of hope however in the cocoa sector and the stock market is performing better than expected. Even so, the bigger picture remains troubling – especially the current levels of insecurity. With kidnappings and ethnic violence on the rise, the government’s response is all over the place. If the Tinubu administration doesn’t tackle the underlying issues soon, more unrest is almost certain.US-Nigeria relations have taken a sharp hit with Trump back in the White House. Visa restrictions and aid cuts are sending a clear message that things are shifting – and Nigeria is feeling it, especially in healthcare where US funding was critical. Economically, a slight dip in inflation isn’t fooling anyone. High interest rates and over-reliance on oil still weigh heavily. We do see a glimmer of hope however in the cocoa sector and the stock market is performing better than expected. Even so, the bigger picture remains troubling – especially the current levels of insecurity. With kidnappings and ethnic violence on the rise, the government’s response is all over the place. If the Tinubu administration doesn’t tackle the underlying issues soon, more unrest is almost certain.US-Nigeria relations have taken a sharp hit with Trump back in the White House. Visa restrictions and aid cuts are sending a clear message that things are shifting – and Nigeria is feeling it, especially in healthcare where US funding was critical. Economically, a slight dip in inflation isn’t fooling anyone. High interest rates and over-reliance on oil still weigh heavily. We do see a glimmer of hope however in the cocoa sector and the stock market is performing better than expected. Even so, the bigger picture remains troubling – especially the current levels of insecurity. With kidnappings and ethnic violence on the rise, the government’s response is all over the place. If the Tinubu administration doesn’t tackle the underlying issues soon, more unrest is almost certain.
US Relations. We
had anticipated sharp changes to US-Nigerian relations when Trump returned to the
White House and that is exactly what we are getting. The shift is already
affecting diplomacy, trade and crucially security cooperation. Trump has
already shown his hand – Nigerian visa applicants can no longer renew through
the drop box service, a service that was available in his first term. Whether
by coincidence or not, the message is clear; Nigeria’s diplomatic relationship
with the US is changing. There are potential upsides to this however. If Trump
rolls back climate policies and re-focuses on fossil fuels, it could push oil
prices higher, something Nigeria would definitely celebrate. The country very
much needs an economic lifeline right now – this may just be it.
US Aid. The
US has suspended its aid to Nigeria, and this is more than a diplomatic slap on
the wrist. In fact it is a loud signal about the state of human rights in the
country and the government’s immediate response shows just how deeply Nigeria
depends on foreign assistance. NGN 200 billion has been reallocated to cover
welfare and healthcare, but this doesn’t change the underlying issue; Nigeria
is still playing catch-up when it comes to self-sufficiency. On one hand, some
are framing this as a chance to shift away from external dependence. Dig a
little deeper though, and things begin to get a little murky. The country’s
foreign relations, especially with the West, are fragile and one suspension can
easily escalate into a broader pattern of disengagement. There’s a long road
ahead to reduce that vulnerability. One of the immediate casualties of the new
administration’s shift is health assistance. Trump’s exit from the World Health
Organisation and the suspension of USAID is already hurting Nigeria. US
spending on Nigerian health initiatives hit USD600 million in 2023, making up
21% of the national health budget. Now, this funding is in jeopardy. Tinubu’s
government had already allocated just 4.8% of its budget to health this year, a
drop from 5.5% last year. The biggest health concerns in Nigeria remain Malaria
and HIV. As the US pulls back, alternative funding must urgently be found.
Nigeria’s Centre for Disease Control is already scrambling to fill the gap,
with the government setting aside USD1 billion for healthcare reform and an
additional USD3.2 million to procure 150,000 HIV treatment packs.
Legislation. The
House of Representatives is pushing forward a proposal to create 31 new states,
bringing the total to 67. It is being sold as a move which would improve local
governance by decentralising power. We aren’t buying that however; the reality
will be messy. New states will require additional budgets, new local assemblies
and significant administrative costs. All this at a time when, to put it mildly,
Nigeria’s fiscal situation is already strained. Add in state-level disputes,
especially over things like federal budget allocations (revenue raised from the
alcohol sector will definitely be the hot topic here) and we can already hear
voices being raised. States like Lagos and Rivers have already been pushing for
more local control over revenues. Adding yet more states will stoke this fire
and increase regional tensions. Should the resolution be passed it will take
some time in the making before it is realised but anticipate that this will be
a flashpoint that could set fire to Nigeria’s political landscape. Should it go
ahead it will come with a hefty price – NGN4.5 trillion to be exact. While
decentralisation might help address some local concerns, the risk of increasing
fragmentation is high. Nigeria’s ethnic divides are already strained and
expanding the number of states will only deepen tensions. From where we sit the
government has to choose between whether now is this the right time to create
more states, or instead focusing on fixing more immediate structural issues. Sadly,
we suspect they’ll choose the former at the expense of the latter, and only
create more problems down the road.
US Relations. We
had anticipated sharp changes to US-Nigerian relations when Trump returned to the
White House and that is exactly what we are getting. The shift is already
affecting diplomacy, trade and crucially security cooperation. Trump has
already shown his hand – Nigerian visa applicants can no longer renew through
the drop box service, a service that was available in his first term. Whether
by coincidence or not, the message is clear; Nigeria’s diplomatic relationship
with the US is changing. There are potential upsides to this however. If Trump
rolls back climate policies and re-focuses on fossil fuels, it could push oil
prices higher, something Nigeria would definitely celebrate. The country very
much needs an economic lifeline right now – this may just be it.
US Aid. The
US has suspended its aid to Nigeria, and this is more than a diplomatic slap on
the wrist. In fact it is a loud signal about the state of human rights in the
country and the government’s immediate response shows just how deeply Nigeria
depends on foreign assistance. NGN 200 billion has been reallocated to cover
welfare and healthcare, but this doesn’t change the underlying issue; Nigeria
is still playing catch-up when it comes to self-sufficiency. On one hand, some
are framing this as a chance to shift away from external dependence. Dig a
little deeper though, and things begin to get a little murky. The country’s
foreign relations, especially with the West, are fragile and one suspension can
easily escalate into a broader pattern of disengagement. There’s a long road
ahead to reduce that vulnerability. One of the immediate casualties of the new
administration’s shift is health assistance. Trump’s exit from the World Health
Organisation and the suspension of USAID is already hurting Nigeria. US
spending on Nigerian health initiatives hit USD600 million in 2023, making up
21% of the national health budget. Now, this funding is in jeopardy. Tinubu’s
government had already allocated just 4.8% of its budget to health this year, a
drop from 5.5% last year. The biggest health concerns in Nigeria remain Malaria
and HIV. As the US pulls back, alternative funding must urgently be found.
Nigeria’s Centre for Disease Control is already scrambling to fill the gap,
with the government setting aside USD1 billion for healthcare reform and an
additional USD3.2 million to procure 150,000 HIV treatment packs.
Legislation. The
House of Representatives is pushing forward a proposal to create 31 new states,
bringing the total to 67. It is being sold as a move which would improve local
governance by decentralising power. We aren’t buying that however; the reality
will be messy. New states will require additional budgets, new local assemblies
and significant administrative costs. All this at a time when, to put it mildly,
Nigeria’s fiscal situation is already strained. Add in state-level disputes,
especially over things like federal budget allocations (revenue raised from the
alcohol sector will definitely be the hot topic here) and we can already hear
voices being raised. States like Lagos and Rivers have already been pushing for
more local control over revenues. Adding yet more states will stoke this fire
and increase regional tensions. Should the resolution be passed it will take
some time in the making before it is realised but anticipate that this will be
a flashpoint that could set fire to Nigeria’s political landscape. Should it go
ahead it will come with a hefty price – NGN4.5 trillion to be exact. While
decentralisation might help address some local concerns, the risk of increasing
fragmentation is high. Nigeria’s ethnic divides are already strained and
expanding the number of states will only deepen tensions. From where we sit the
government has to choose between whether now is this the right time to create
more states, or instead focusing on fixing more immediate structural issues. Sadly,
we suspect they’ll choose the former at the expense of the latter, and only
create more problems down the road.
US Relations. We had anticipated sharp changes to US-Nigerian relations when Trump returned to the White House and that is exactly what we are getting. The shift is already affecting diplomacy, trade and crucially security cooperation. Trump has already shown his hand – Nigerian visa applicants can no longer renew through the drop box service, a service that was available in his first term. Whether by coincidence or not, the message is clear; Nigeria’s diplomatic relationship with the US is changing. There are potential upsides to this however. If Trump rolls back climate policies and re-focuses on fossil fuels, it could push oil prices higher, something Nigeria would definitely celebrate. The country very much needs an economic lifeline right now – this may just be it.
US Aid. The US has suspended its aid to Nigeria, and this is more than a diplomatic slap on the wrist. In fact it is a loud signal about the state of human rights in the country and the government’s immediate response shows just how deeply Nigeria depends on foreign assistance. NGN 200 billion has been reallocated to cover welfare and healthcare, but this doesn’t change the underlying issue; Nigeria is still playing catch-up when it comes to self-sufficiency. On one hand, some are framing this as a chance to shift away from external dependence. Dig a little deeper though, and things begin to get a little murky. The country’s foreign relations, especially with the West, are fragile and one suspension can easily escalate into a broader pattern of disengagement. There’s a long road ahead to reduce that vulnerability. One of the immediate casualties of the new administration’s shift is health assistance. Trump’s exit from the World Health Organisation and the suspension of USAID is already hurting Nigeria. US spending on Nigerian health initiatives hit USD600 million in 2023, making up 21% of the national health budget. Now, this funding is in jeopardy. Tinubu’s government had already allocated just 4.8% of its budget to health this year, a drop from 5.5% last year. The biggest health concerns in Nigeria remain Malaria and HIV. As the US pulls back, alternative funding must urgently be found. Nigeria’s Centre for Disease Control is already scrambling to fill the gap, with the government setting aside USD1 billion for healthcare reform and an additional USD3.2 million to procure 150,000 HIV treatment packs.
Legislation. The House of Representatives is pushing forward a proposal to create 31 new states, bringing the total to 67. It is being sold as a move which would improve local governance by decentralising power. We aren’t buying that however; the reality will be messy. New states will require additional budgets, new local assemblies and significant administrative costs. All this at a time when, to put it mildly, Nigeria’s fiscal situation is already strained. Add in state-level disputes, especially over things like federal budget allocations (revenue raised from the alcohol sector will definitely be the hot topic here) and we can already hear voices being raised. States like Lagos and Rivers have already been pushing for more local control over revenues. Adding yet more states will stoke this fire and increase regional tensions. Should the resolution be passed it will take some time in the making before it is realised but anticipate that this will be a flashpoint that could set fire to Nigeria’s political landscape. Should it go ahead it will come with a hefty price – NGN4.5 trillion to be exact. While decentralisation might help address some local concerns, the risk of increasing fragmentation is high. Nigeria’s ethnic divides are already strained and expanding the number of states will only deepen tensions. From where we sit the government has to choose between whether now is this the right time to create more states, or instead focusing on fixing more immediate structural issues. Sadly, we suspect they’ll choose the former at the expense of the latter, and only create more problems down the road.US Relations. We had anticipated sharp changes to US-Nigerian relations when Trump returned to the White House and that is exactly what we are getting. The shift is already affecting diplomacy, trade and crucially security cooperation. Trump has already shown his hand – Nigerian visa applicants can no longer renew through the drop box service, a service that was available in his first term. Whether by coincidence or not, the message is clear; Nigeria’s diplomatic relationship with the US is changing. There are potential upsides to this however. If Trump rolls back climate policies and re-focuses on fossil fuels, it could push oil prices higher, something Nigeria would definitely celebrate. The country very much needs an economic lifeline right now – this may just be it.
US Aid. The US has suspended its aid to Nigeria, and this is more than a diplomatic slap on the wrist. In fact it is a loud signal about the state of human rights in the country and the government’s immediate response shows just how deeply Nigeria depends on foreign assistance. NGN 200 billion has been reallocated to cover welfare and healthcare, but this doesn’t change the underlying issue; Nigeria is still playing catch-up when it comes to self-sufficiency. On one hand, some are framing this as a chance to shift away from external dependence. Dig a little deeper though, and things begin to get a little murky. The country’s foreign relations, especially with the West, are fragile and one suspension can easily escalate into a broader pattern of disengagement. There’s a long road ahead to reduce that vulnerability. One of the immediate casualties of the new administration’s shift is health assistance. Trump’s exit from the World Health Organisation and the suspension of USAID is already hurting Nigeria. US spending on Nigerian health initiatives hit USD600 million in 2023, making up 21% of the national health budget. Now, this funding is in jeopardy. Tinubu’s government had already allocated just 4.8% of its budget to health this year, a drop from 5.5% last year. The biggest health concerns in Nigeria remain Malaria and HIV. As the US pulls back, alternative funding must urgently be found. Nigeria’s Centre for Disease Control is already scrambling to fill the gap, with the government setting aside USD1 billion for healthcare reform and an additional USD3.2 million to procure 150,000 HIV treatment packs.
Legislation. The House of Representatives is pushing forward a proposal to create 31 new states, bringing the total to 67. It is being sold as a move which would improve local governance by decentralising power. We aren’t buying that however; the reality will be messy. New states will require additional budgets, new local assemblies and significant administrative costs. All this at a time when, to put it mildly, Nigeria’s fiscal situation is already strained. Add in state-level disputes, especially over things like federal budget allocations (revenue raised from the alcohol sector will definitely be the hot topic here) and we can already hear voices being raised. States like Lagos and Rivers have already been pushing for more local control over revenues. Adding yet more states will stoke this fire and increase regional tensions. Should the resolution be passed it will take some time in the making before it is realised but anticipate that this will be a flashpoint that could set fire to Nigeria’s political landscape. Should it go ahead it will come with a hefty price – NGN4.5 trillion to be exact. While decentralisation might help address some local concerns, the risk of increasing fragmentation is high. Nigeria’s ethnic divides are already strained and expanding the number of states will only deepen tensions. From where we sit the government has to choose between whether now is this the right time to create more states, or instead focusing on fixing more immediate structural issues. Sadly, we suspect they’ll choose the former at the expense of the latter, and only create more problems down the road.US Relations. We had anticipated sharp changes to US-Nigerian relations when Trump returned to the White House and that is exactly what we are getting. The shift is already affecting diplomacy, trade and crucially security cooperation. Trump has already shown his hand – Nigerian visa applicants can no longer renew through the drop box service, a service that was available in his first term. Whether by coincidence or not, the message is clear; Nigeria’s diplomatic relationship with the US is changing. There are potential upsides to this however. If Trump rolls back climate policies and re-focuses on fossil fuels, it could push oil prices higher, something Nigeria would definitely celebrate. The country very much needs an economic lifeline right now – this may just be it.
US Aid. The US has suspended its aid to Nigeria, and this is more than a diplomatic slap on the wrist. In fact it is a loud signal about the state of human rights in the country and the government’s immediate response shows just how deeply Nigeria depends on foreign assistance. NGN 200 billion has been reallocated to cover welfare and healthcare, but this doesn’t change the underlying issue; Nigeria is still playing catch-up when it comes to self-sufficiency. On one hand, some are framing this as a chance to shift away from external dependence. Dig a little deeper though, and things begin to get a little murky. The country’s foreign relations, especially with the West, are fragile and one suspension can easily escalate into a broader pattern of disengagement. There’s a long road ahead to reduce that vulnerability. One of the immediate casualties of the new administration’s shift is health assistance. Trump’s exit from the World Health Organisation and the suspension of USAID is already hurting Nigeria. US spending on Nigerian health initiatives hit USD600 million in 2023, making up 21% of the national health budget. Now, this funding is in jeopardy. Tinubu’s government had already allocated just 4.8% of its budget to health this year, a drop from 5.5% last year. The biggest health concerns in Nigeria remain Malaria and HIV. As the US pulls back, alternative funding must urgently be found. Nigeria’s Centre for Disease Control is already scrambling to fill the gap, with the government setting aside USD1 billion for healthcare reform and an additional USD3.2 million to procure 150,000 HIV treatment packs.
Legislation. The House of Representatives is pushing forward a proposal to create 31 new states, bringing the total to 67. It is being sold as a move which would improve local governance by decentralising power. We aren’t buying that however; the reality will be messy. New states will require additional budgets, new local assemblies and significant administrative costs. All this at a time when, to put it mildly, Nigeria’s fiscal situation is already strained. Add in state-level disputes, especially over things like federal budget allocations (revenue raised from the alcohol sector will definitely be the hot topic here) and we can already hear voices being raised. States like Lagos and Rivers have already been pushing for more local control over revenues. Adding yet more states will stoke this fire and increase regional tensions. Should the resolution be passed it will take some time in the making before it is realised but anticipate that this will be a flashpoint that could set fire to Nigeria’s political landscape. Should it go ahead it will come with a hefty price – NGN4.5 trillion to be exact. While decentralisation might help address some local concerns, the risk of increasing fragmentation is high. Nigeria’s ethnic divides are already strained and expanding the number of states will only deepen tensions. From where we sit the government has to choose between whether now is this the right time to create more states, or instead focusing on fixing more immediate structural issues. Sadly, we suspect they’ll choose the former at the expense of the latter, and only create more problems down the road.
Numbers. Inflation has dropped slightly from 24.48% to 23.18%, but that isn’t fooling us. This is not an economic revival. The Central Bank’s (CBN) decision to maintain interest rates at 27.5% shows just how tightly the economy is being squeezed. Businesses are feeling the pinch and the latest surveys confirm that most firms see high rates as a major obstacle to growth. Whilst the easing inflation rate does offer a small glimmer of hope, it is not enough to ignore the larger structural issues like energy shortages, inadequate infrastructure and Nigeria’s over-reliance on oil. Those are all still in place. For now, Nigeria will remain stuck in a cycle of inflationary pressure. The CBN’s policy rate is one of the highest in Africa. While some argue that it helps rein in inflation, the truth is it is also choking private sector credit. With loan costs sky-high, businesses can’t expand, consumers can’t spend, and investors hesitate. The Bank is stuck between fighting inflation and avoiding a growth collapse – it’s walking a policy tightrope. Even with inflation down, food inflation remains elevated and energy prices are climbing again. The average Nigerian isn’t feeling any relief. Real wages are stagnant, unemployment is high, and subsidy removals have hit the poorest hardest. The bottom line? This isn’t disinflation, it’s stagnation under strain. The pressure is less about numbers and more about the squeeze on growth, confidence and resilience.
Fiscal Policy. Debt dynamics are getting harder to ignore. Public debt has climbed past NGN 121Tn, with interest costs eating deeper into the budget each month. Debt service now routinely gulps 80-90% of revenues, leaving precious little for actual development. The Naira’s weakness has only made external repayments more painful, (NGN1,605 to USD1 at the time of writing) and with Eurobond maturities looming in 2025-26, pressure is building. Tinubu’s team keeps talking up fiscal reform and revenue gains – but until he stops speaking and starts doing something to flatten the debt curve, investors should stay cautious.
Markets. The stock market is performing surprisingly well, crossing NGN35 trillion in market cap by early 2025. The driving forces? A strong banking sector combined with a growing influx of foreign interest – particularly from China. We see it as being a positive development but we are not getting ahead of ourselves. The stock market rally doesn’t erase the country’s underlying economic fragility. Rising interest rates, inflation, and infrastructure bottlenecks are all still ticking time bombs waiting to go off. Instead we see the stock market right now as being a shiny distraction – impressive in the short term but offering little in the way of long-term structural change. Investors may be getting a good return but the wider economy needs a serious overhaul if it’s going to thrive.
Agriculture. On a slightly more positive note – Nigeria’s cocoa sector is experiencing a much welcome boost. Prices are rising and already farmers are beginning to reap the benefits. This is a clear signal that diversification away from oil is slowly but surely gaining traction. A boom in cocoa could make it a major pillar of Nigeria’s economy. This is particularly true in rural areas where it could foster development and stability. However, maintaining this momentum will require investment in agricultural infrastructure and long-term sustainability. Cocoa might offer hope, but without the right investments it may end up being just another fleeting opportunity that this government doesn’t pay enough attention to – another golden goose that the government will regret failing to feed.
Beer. Nigeria’s beer sector has witnessed a series of financial shake-ups, strategic shifts and corporate adjustments over the last quarter. After Tolaram Group took over Diageo’s 58% stake in June of last year, Guinness Nigeria has been steadily climbing back. In the six months ending December 2024, the company reported a sharp 82.2% rise in revenue – reaching NGN259.6 billion up from NGN142.6 billion. This growth was fuelled by geographic expansion and product diversification. Despite the inflationary pressures and currency devaluation weighing on margins, Guinness managed to slash its net loss to just NGN302.7 million – far better than last year’s NGN5.23 billion loss. Nigerian Breweries is also making moves to stay afloat. In response to rising costs and FX pressures, the company is raising NGN599.1 billion via a rights issue to reduce local debt and Forex liabilities. To ease the burden, Heineken has suspended interest payments on loans to Nigerian Breweries, offering the company a critical lifeline in a tight market.
Despite stepped-up military operations, the security situation remains bleak. Attacks and kidnappings are still far too common. In March alone, 40 people were abducted in Sokoto. It is just one entry in a long list of security failures that have become depressingly routine. The government’s response has been, at best, disjointed and at worst non-existent. Coordination between federal and state authorities is patchy at best, which only adds friction to efforts on the ground. With US military aid now suspended, Nigeria is more exposed than ever. Local forces have stepped up but the results haven’t matched the scale of the threat. The real challenge now is to move beyond a reactive playbook and build a proper strategy – one that uses not just the military but also social and economic levers to tackle the root causes of violence.
Ethnic violence remains one of the most combustible risks. In March, 16 people were killed in an ethnically charged attack in Edo State – a grim reminder of just how deep the fractures run. The government’s response was, once again, slow and fragmented. This has raised fresh questions with many asking if local authorities unwilling or simply unable to intervene? Violence of this type cannot be solved with arrests or temporary fixes. It requires a long-term strategy that will address structural inequality, political manipulation, and weak institutions. So far, successive governments have shied away from that fight. And as tensions keep rising, the Tinubu administration is looking increasingly ill-equipped to manage the fallout. If nothing changes, further unrest looks more a matter of when, rather than if.
Gender-based violence is another front where the crisis is deepening. The DOHS Cares Foundation has launched a Femicide Observatory to track and study gender-motivated killings in Nigeria. The rise in gender-based violence (GBV) is deeply alarming. Officials claim cases have surged by 240% over the past year. We haven’t been able to independently verify that figure, but it’s within a believable range – and the underlying trend is hard to ignore. As ever, the government’s response has been more reactive than proactive. A national registry for survivors now exists, but the last time we checked, the website was offline. Until a working platform exists or real enforcement begins, the reform risks becoming just another box-ticking exercise. This administration’s refusal to declare a state of emergency is telling. It highlights just how politically fraught the issue has become. Many in power are wary of pushing reforms that might upset local dynamics – and that hesitation is stalling real progress. The window for meaningful action is closing fast. Without it, this could become yet another lost opportunity in a nation already littered with them.
Nigeria may be stepping into summer but it is walking a political and economic tightrope at the same time. The early effects of Trump’s return are already being felt – from suspended aid and diplomatic chill, to deeper exposure on the security front. Tinubu’s team are ambling along, occasionally meaning to fill holes, but the cracks are spreading faster than Tinubu’s sauntering pace can get them smoothed. Inflation may have eased on paper, but real economic pain persists. The cocoa boom and stock market surge offer flashes of hope, but they’re not yet rewriting the structural story. Politically, the proposed state expansion could light new fires rather than douse old ones. And on the security front, disjointed responses to kidnapping, ethnic violence, and gender-based crime are amplifying the sense of drift. The common thread? A government that seems caught between short-term fixes and long-term paralysis. Unless Tinubu gets a grip, and fast, Nigeria risks stumbling deeper into volatility when what it most needs is stability.
Published: 12th May 2025