Inflation holds steady at 1.7%. Hints of a base rate cut in December. Some significant drops in export volumes of key manufactured goods.
The doldrums continue for the Philippines, and our GDP growth forecast by year end remains unchanged – even should, as we suspect they will, the central bank cut the base rate by another 0.25% in December. Inflation & Interest Rates After hitting 1.5% in August inflation rose in September to 1.7%, and held steady in October - the highest again since March, but still beneath the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) target band of 2-4%, and an enviable rate for most competing nations in the region. As we said in our September report “this rate of inflation is far below that being experienced by a wide variety of other Emerging & Frontier Markets that we cover, and indeed developed markets. We therefore continue to anticipate at least one further interest rate cut inside this year, possibly two.” Now it seems that the BSP concurs; on 18th Novembe...
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