A raft of new sanctions were applied against Russia in August, and by a wide variety of nations and blocs, with more promised for September. The macro picture remains fragile, and several key indicators are beginning to emerge that signal deterioration.
Monetary policy
No further base rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) after it cut to 20% on 6th June and then 18% on 25th July. Inflation remains roughly steady at 9.4%, having fallen from 10.3% in March, and hitting 9.2% in June – the CBR noted that no clear downward trend has yet developed. At its August meeting the CBR noted several important developments; that household consumption was slowing, the ruble was appreciating, and that the labour market was softening despite the contraction of the labour force created by the mobilisation of military-age/ working-age men. Wage growth continues to grow above productivity growth.
Sanctions
August saw a raft of new sanctions being both applied and prepared by the USA, EU, UK, Ukrain...
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