Plenty is being said elsewhere about the war in Ukraine, the USA’s involvement — or lack thereof — in peace negotiations, and the new US-Ukraine minerals agreements. Here, we focus instead on Russia’s economic landscape: some of it war-linked, some less so.
A fresh wave of UK sanctions, the policy rate held at 21% again and growing talk of cuts later this year amid easing labour shortages and softer inflation expectations. Yet an 18 billion USD trade surplus with China, India and Turkey continues to offset losses from Western sanctions. Ghost fleet tankers keep Russian oil flowing, while payment innovations and dual-use loopholes offer further room to manoeuvre.
Russia is still holding firm - but pressure is building beneath the surface. The Central Bank is holding its line, the ruble is rallying and headline data still suggest resilience. But look a little closer… and the cracks are starting to show. Growth is slowing, inflation is proving sticky and trade tensions are rising. The pol...
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