This month, in the light of Putin’s 28th May demand that Western leaders pledge in writing to halt the eastward expansion of NATO, we are taking a step back from our usual macro terrain. Instead we are focusing on geopolitics - and specifically on an article we published almost exactly three years ago. It is not our typical economic breakdown, but given the geopolitical weight of the moment - and the long arc of strategic miscalculation that brought us here - we think the context matters.
On 22nd May 2022, in our article “Russia has not changed the world – Putin doesn’t deserve such credit” we wrote that “In reality, if anything, Russia is the only constant. Instead, as the world shifted on its geopolitical axis Putin saw opportunity to pursue the same objective that (nearly) every Russian leader before him has sought to achieve – the security of the Russian heartland.”
We explored Russia’s geography and history, noting that its only real vulnerability to invasion has always been from ...
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